{ "ticker": { "uuid": "068ca235-8b1b-463e-a9ed-4e5acf86dfbf", "symbol": "FSUN", "name": "FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.31, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.827, "architecture_energy": 17.965, "architecture_maturity": 19.48, "architecture_confidence": 59.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.37, "rotation_up": 44.88, "upward_expansion": 35.97, "deceleration": 29.28, "rotation_down": 29.39, "downward_expansion": 26.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.502, 37.191455, 36.829524, 36.847312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 39.68, "trend_reference": 37.136, "distance_from_trend": 0.068505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.444968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088765, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.935939, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.016117, "excess_performance": -0.203571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04712, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016117, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.611474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1504921, "relative_activity": 1.154596, "balance": 2.611474, "dry_up": 1.089026, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067562, "annualized_volatility": 0.332106, "from_high_reference": -0.062825, "from_low_reference": 0.324875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.136, "fair_value_reference": 36.444968, "structural_low": 33.12, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.007423, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.006324, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.217647, "worst_return": -0.138697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054118, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065003, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.13728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009198, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.118797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034783, "worst_return": -0.221237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.028264, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.214648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038261, "worst_return": -0.094788, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.213069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.14957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013541, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13997, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019231, 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35.85484, "relative_strength": -17.333629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.225005, "energy": 50.410747, "activity_lines": [ 35.500667, 36.091636, 36.518143, 36.901247 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 36.91, "volume": 838581, "typical_volume": 1000064.05, "trend": 37.052, "fair_value": 35.931186, "relative_strength": -16.063641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.17043, "energy": 28.920562, "activity_lines": [ 35.929333, 36.152727, 36.50219, 36.901527 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 36.19, "volume": 1339332, "typical_volume": 1000332.4, "trend": 37.153333, "fair_value": 36.002917, "relative_strength": -19.471156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.542259, "energy": 16.996984, "activity_lines": [ 36.129333, 36.078727, 36.421762, 36.845914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 38.31, "volume": 2902385, "typical_volume": 1087737.8, "trend": 37.316, "fair_value": 36.085096, "relative_strength": -10.482499, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.88196, "energy": 10.510479, "activity_lines": [ 36.922, 36.416909, 36.558905, 36.920538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.98, "volume": 1354477, "typical_volume": 1119664.7, "trend": 37.422667, "fair_value": 36.174712, "relative_strength": -9.310859, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.7487, "energy": 20.881818, "activity_lines": [ 37.746667, 36.891636, 36.769476, 37.027892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.08, "volume": 1598216, "typical_volume": 1168386.8, "trend": 37.332333, "fair_value": 36.236763, "relative_strength": -19.336889, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.383746, "energy": 14.996616, "activity_lines": [ 37.036, 36.643636, 36.609619, 36.876753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.43, "volume": 1106959, "typical_volume": 1194552.75, "trend": 37.211, "fair_value": 36.282788, "relative_strength": -14.473688, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.326097, "energy": 15.53725, "activity_lines": [ 36.481333, 36.474727, 36.504048, 36.754022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.49, "volume": 863400, "typical_volume": 1202716.15, "trend": 37.082, "fair_value": 36.317981, "relative_strength": -14.886011, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.694819, "energy": 33.758745, "activity_lines": [ 35.712, 36.164909, 36.313905, 36.578473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.68, "volume": 2202547, "typical_volume": 1275368.55, "trend": 37.111, "fair_value": 36.37875, "relative_strength": -4.854112, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.92403, "energy": 11.771099, "activity_lines": [ 36.452667, 36.616727, 36.533238, 36.68157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.68, "volume": 1504921, "typical_volume": 1303418.15, "trend": 37.136, "fair_value": 36.444968, "relative_strength": -6.935939, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.826657, "energy": 17.965369, "activity_lines": [ 37.502, 37.191455, 36.829524, 36.847312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }