{ "ticker": { "uuid": "068d0c56-b887-45ee-a3b4-6d67fbaf302e", "symbol": "1340", "name": "Victory New Materials Limited Company", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.078, "architecture_energy": 61.352, "architecture_maturity": 48.513, "architecture_confidence": 88.081, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.73, "rotation_up": 18.08, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 42.78, "rotation_down": 64.69, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.14, 5.275636, 5.448667, 5.721656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.14, "trend_reference": 6.093, "distance_from_trend": -0.156409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.68859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.40842, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.546298, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.215267, "excess_performance": -0.656639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.40842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008863, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018513, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.166021, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1135904, "relative_activity": 0.968327, "balance": 2.166021, "dry_up": 0.897153, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079018, "annualized_volatility": 0.334617, "from_high_reference": -0.428889, "from_low_reference": 0.03006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.093, "fair_value_reference": 8.68859, "structural_low": 4.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.00495, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03274, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.392799, "worst_return": -0.195726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.017, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.06614, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.117825, "worst_return": -0.259218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.149224, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.271617, "worst_return": -0.315083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060952, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.266529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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-43.287196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.738941, "energy": 61.70931, "activity_lines": [ 5.282667, 5.414, 5.576619, 5.860667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.07, "volume": 637020, "typical_volume": 1159854.0, "trend": 6.145333, "fair_value": 8.73641, "relative_strength": -44.126936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.151053, "energy": 70.160827, "activity_lines": [ 5.174, 5.334727, 5.504714, 5.786516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.14, "volume": 1135904, "typical_volume": 1173057.9, "trend": 6.093, "fair_value": 8.68859, "relative_strength": -44.546298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.078291, "energy": 61.352174, "activity_lines": [ 5.14, 5.275636, 5.448667, 5.721656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }