{ "ticker": { "uuid": "069002b7-3975-4d7e-a1ae-017867b90b94", "symbol": "COFFEEDAY", "name": "Coffee Day Enterprises Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.152, "architecture_energy": 20.648, "architecture_maturity": 45.14, "architecture_confidence": 83.238, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.03, "rotation_up": 24.95, "upward_expansion": 54.63, "deceleration": 88.37, "rotation_down": 28.4, "downward_expansion": 18.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.348667, 31.997273, 31.186572, 30.135011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.400002, "trend_reference": 29.598333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094656, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.03968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190803, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.53102, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074984, "excess_performance": 0.118693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094656, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159416, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.781353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2767013, "relative_activity": 0.402109, "balance": 8.781353, "dry_up": 0.245759, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095133, "annualized_volatility": 0.692438, "from_high_reference": -0.370385, "from_low_reference": 0.542857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.598333, "fair_value_reference": 40.03968, "structural_low": 21.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.067027, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.0644, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.268346, "worst_return": -0.223848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.106829, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.126911, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.326087, "worst_return": -0.36546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035242, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00264, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.762422, "worst_return": -0.471163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.190915, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067505, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.700311, "worst_return": -0.318481, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.209217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062741, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.459604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020502, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.371134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"typical_volume": 7512298.85, "trend": 30.131, "fair_value": 40.16391, "relative_strength": -4.578432, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.83384, "energy": 28.104496, "activity_lines": [ 32.827333, 32.778182, 30.260333, 29.79228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.77, "volume": 1155524, "typical_volume": 7393150.9, "trend": 30.003, "fair_value": 40.113077, "relative_strength": -5.19063, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.002489, "energy": 17.309378, "activity_lines": [ 32.343333, 32.836, 30.563238, 29.898022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.24, "volume": 1453366, "typical_volume": 7287868.35, "trend": 29.834333, "fair_value": 40.093782, "relative_strength": -7.372498, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.603914, "energy": 23.292245, "activity_lines": [ 31.493333, 32.516727, 30.713095, 29.913312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.51, "volume": 1388625, "typical_volume": 7025592.5, "trend": 29.639333, "fair_value": 40.069487, "relative_strength": -8.668442, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.393413, "energy": 22.931514, "activity_lines": [ 31.013333, 32.139818, 30.873762, 29.956903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.400002, "volume": 2767013, "typical_volume": 6881252.8, "trend": 29.598333, "fair_value": 40.03968, "relative_strength": -3.53102, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.151775, "energy": 20.648055, "activity_lines": [ 31.348667, 31.997273, 31.186572, 30.135011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }