{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "069260aa-dd4e-419a-93a4-fd611dbf2167",
    "symbol": "42N",
    "name": "IPS Securex Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.093,
    "architecture_energy": 53.15,
    "architecture_maturity": 51.112,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.592,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 16.58,
        "rotation_up": 23.64,
        "upward_expansion": 8.78,
        "deceleration": 57.82,
        "rotation_down": 52.74,
        "downward_expansion": 79.78
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.026067,
        0.026564,
        0.028386,
        0.029903
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.027,
    "trend_reference": 0.0325,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.169231,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.020994,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286107,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -23.359898,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.357143,
    "excess_performance": -0.511978,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.169231,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.039409,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.286107,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.247063,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.233599,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.425945,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.357143,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.389618,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 657200,
      "relative_activity": 0.068699,
      "balance": 0.389618,
      "dry_up": 0.132687,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.088319,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.431571,
      "from_high_reference": -0.490566,
      "from_low_reference": 1.25
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.0325,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.020994,
      "structural_low": 0.022,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 44,
        "median_return": -0.027045,
        "positive_rate": 0.363636,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.522727,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024085,
        "regime_survival": 0.863636,
        "best_return": 0.75,
        "worst_return": -0.235294,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.04,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.05554,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 1.777778,
        "worst_return": -0.333333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.199119,
        "positive_rate": 0.125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.186888,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 3.888889,
        "worst_return": -0.264706,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.358974,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.426426,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 1.5,
        "worst_return": -0.48,
        "sufficient": true
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.071429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.095238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.157895,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.1875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.166667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 1.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.068966,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.258065,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.117647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.129032,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 0.021,
        "relative_strength": -27.570709,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -88.525522,
        "energy": 89.841397,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.025,
        "volume": 2271200,
        "typical_volume": 10547900.0,
        "trend": 0.0337,
        "fair_value": 0.020987,
        "relative_strength": -25.610357,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -77.993183,
        "energy": 88.973716,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.026,
          0.0276,
          0.029524,
          0.031277
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.026,
        "volume": 768600,
        "typical_volume": 10155910.0,
        "trend": 0.033533,
        "fair_value": 0.020987,
        "relative_strength": -24.054495,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.998166,
        "energy": 85.403961,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.025733,
          0.027091,
          0.029086,
          0.030781
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.026,
        "volume": 1380300,
        "typical_volume": 9983695.0,
        "trend": 0.033067,
        "fair_value": 0.020981,
        "relative_strength": -24.890854,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.34956,
        "energy": 81.468756,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.025667,
          0.026691,
          0.028676,
          0.030295
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.027,
        "volume": 657200,
        "typical_volume": 9566335.0,
        "trend": 0.0325,
        "fair_value": 0.020994,
        "relative_strength": -23.359898,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.092674,
        "energy": 53.150106,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.026067,
          0.026564,
          0.028386,
          0.029903
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}