{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06927afc-e4ce-45ac-a853-2ae9ad0d4735", "symbol": "UPGRAD", "name": "Upgrade Invest Nordic AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.156, "architecture_energy": 48.856, "architecture_maturity": 17.65, "architecture_confidence": 89.921, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.08, "rotation_up": 13.87, "upward_expansion": 9.26, "deceleration": 40.77, "rotation_down": 59.79, "downward_expansion": 82.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.138667, 3.251636, 3.466476, 3.566323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.3, "trend_reference": 3.752667, "distance_from_trend": -0.120625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.450577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.190805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218009, "excess_performance": -0.279504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.241126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16051, "relative_activity": 1.373877, "balance": 1.241126, "dry_up": 0.865745, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200932, "annualized_volatility": 0.894837, "from_high_reference": -0.445378, "from_low_reference": 0.32 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.752667, "fair_value_reference": 4.450577, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.029661, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.042736, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.356502, "worst_return": -0.164609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.087717, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.9625, "worst_return": -0.107981, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.081796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039531, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.098592, "worst_return": 0.065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.17, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.094927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17, "worst_return": 0.17, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.8625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182266, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060748, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045045, "active": false 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14525, "typical_volume": 12408.6, "trend": 3.791333, "fair_value": 4.457372, "relative_strength": -24.019235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.624299, "energy": 61.115415, "activity_lines": [ 3.06, 3.281455, 3.489048, 3.598022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.3, "volume": 16051, "typical_volume": 11683.0, "trend": 3.752667, "fair_value": 4.450577, "relative_strength": -29.190805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.156452, "energy": 48.85579, "activity_lines": [ 3.138667, 3.251636, 3.466476, 3.566323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }