{ "ticker": { "uuid": "069bf32b-79f4-4770-b67c-2fb6580ef7b0", "symbol": "CPFE3", "name": "CPFL Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.221, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.473, "architecture_energy": 10.581, "architecture_maturity": 23.809, "architecture_confidence": 51.92, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.76, "rotation_up": 22.76, "upward_expansion": 21.46, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 34.85, "downward_expansion": 52.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.695999, 45.689272, 45.682572, 45.794923 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 44.799999, "trend_reference": 46.12141, "distance_from_trend": -0.028651, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.394114, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.054518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019142, "excess_performance": 0.037906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028651, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004475, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.230968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6099700, "relative_activity": 0.868119, "balance": 0.750623, "dry_up": 0.827038, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047356, "annualized_volatility": 0.279791, "from_high_reference": -0.154587, "from_low_reference": 0.291829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.12141, "fair_value_reference": 36.394114, "structural_low": 42.163757, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014276, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.16768, "worst_return": -0.064132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043121, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.032877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.321013, "worst_return": -0.116453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.18015, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027947, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.381687, "worst_return": -0.063824, "sufficient": true }, 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009549, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075213, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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36.045255, "relative_strength": 2.395254, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.956026, "energy": 13.449259, "activity_lines": [ 46.052666, 45.136545, 45.728809, 45.981181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.869999, "volume": 5699000, "typical_volume": 7567625.0, "trend": 46.543541, "fair_value": 36.1392, "relative_strength": 2.617416, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.824487, "energy": 21.465699, "activity_lines": [ 46.518666, 45.472727, 45.831782, 46.001229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.09, "volume": 5222000, "typical_volume": 7348565.0, "trend": 46.403032, "fair_value": 36.219819, "relative_strength": -1.423077, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.372634, "energy": 22.169177, "activity_lines": [ 46.227999, 45.522909, 45.764124, 45.907452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.14, "volume": 6223500, "typical_volume": 7179555.0, "trend": 46.281158, "fair_value": 36.311174, "relative_strength": -1.326163, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.866894, "energy": 18.419117, "activity_lines": [ 46.206666, 45.753636, 45.790825, 45.890482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.799999, "volume": 6099700, "typical_volume": 7026340.0, "trend": 46.12141, "fair_value": 36.394114, "relative_strength": -1.054518, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.47263, "energy": 10.58102, "activity_lines": [ 45.695999, 45.689272, 45.682572, 45.794923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }