{ "ticker": { "uuid": "069fa3b9-d0a5-4bc7-a68f-f607b6286dd7", "symbol": "600529", "name": "Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.822, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.799, "architecture_energy": 17.623, "architecture_maturity": 7.38, "architecture_confidence": 59.427, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.64, "rotation_up": 51.96, "upward_expansion": 39.09, "deceleration": 34.74, "rotation_down": 19.46, "downward_expansion": 16.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.198, 18.887454, 18.723218, 18.785927 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.32, "trend_reference": 19.066228, "distance_from_trend": 0.01331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.637358, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.396547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045512, "excess_performance": -0.002308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01331, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168161, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045512, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.756254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56258276, "relative_activity": 1.496052, "balance": 1.756254, "dry_up": 1.747684, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064131, "annualized_volatility": 0.246572, "from_high_reference": -0.168832, "from_low_reference": 0.123736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.066228, "fair_value_reference": 22.637358, "structural_low": 17.192656, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.010287, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.013613, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.119519, "worst_return": -0.079422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032602, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.017832, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.092756, "worst_return": -0.084216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030858, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.06211, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.00355, "worst_return": -0.128042, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.384749, "energy": 32.026897, "activity_lines": [ 18.299333, 18.47328, 18.498717, 18.772261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 67738755, "typical_volume": 32884558.15, "trend": 19.131656, "fair_value": 22.748027, "relative_strength": -2.036146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.567036, "energy": 19.716409, "activity_lines": [ 18.468666, 18.533263, 18.513387, 18.748595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.59, "volume": 58936799, "typical_volume": 33581597.35, "trend": 19.079915, "fair_value": 22.703445, "relative_strength": -3.907493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.414422, "energy": 13.512569, "activity_lines": [ 18.525333, 18.545636, 18.514259, 18.713649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.959999, "volume": 79949250, "typical_volume": 36323898.75, "trend": 19.079779, "fair_value": 22.671491, "relative_strength": 3.133589, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.0758, "energy": 10.413413, "activity_lines": [ 19.035999, 18.787272, 18.650548, 18.770429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.32, "volume": 56258276, "typical_volume": 37604495.85, "trend": 19.066228, "fair_value": 22.637358, "relative_strength": -2.396547, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.79872, "energy": 17.622797, "activity_lines": [ 19.198, 18.887454, 18.723218, 18.785927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }