{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06a19047-40f5-4ef9-aca5-b6d7a515d598", "symbol": "SBSW", "name": "Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.329, "architecture_energy": 42.398, "architecture_maturity": 72.33, "architecture_confidence": 66.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.76, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 18.02, "deceleration": 66.39, "rotation_down": 46.2, "downward_expansion": 70.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.212667, 9.077636, 9.984048, 10.869702 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.64, "trend_reference": 12.344088, "distance_from_trend": -0.138049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.14949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.488218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.632728, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.334333, "excess_performance": -0.459958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.488218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.444827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274451, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.334333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623416, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29852330, "relative_activity": 1.197381, "balance": 0.623416, "dry_up": 0.99449, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122132, "annualized_volatility": 0.652011, "from_high_reference": -0.485664, "from_low_reference": 0.543371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.344088, "fair_value_reference": 7.14949, "structural_low": 7.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.015292, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.045138, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.330484, "worst_return": -0.256496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039202, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.582219, "worst_return": -0.253641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019161, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045271, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.26087, "worst_return": -0.333548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-34.4058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.730416, "energy": 83.930958, "activity_lines": [ 8.96, 9.711818, 10.842195, 11.858288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.0, "volume": 22995964, "typical_volume": 26699605.25, "trend": 12.899828, "fair_value": 7.100446, "relative_strength": -37.422001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.925699, "energy": 85.379898, "activity_lines": [ 8.566, 9.260182, 10.486611, 11.529452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.36, "volume": 24098185, "typical_volume": 25946964.0, "trend": 12.669987, "fair_value": 7.108161, "relative_strength": -34.003601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.679666, "energy": 76.154439, "activity_lines": [ 8.416, 8.970727, 10.209161, 11.236559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.84, "volume": 22229475, "typical_volume": 25639279.25, "trend": 12.496309, "fair_value": 7.122872, "relative_strength": -30.874076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.414653, "energy": 59.767318, "activity_lines": [ 8.513333, 8.836909, 10.002857, 10.989463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.64, "volume": 29852330, "typical_volume": 24931360.6, "trend": 12.344088, "fair_value": 7.14949, "relative_strength": -19.632728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.329284, "energy": 42.398137, "activity_lines": [ 9.212667, 9.077636, 9.984048, 10.869702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }