{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06a5c320-0fa6-4015-b5c8-ddc2661e996a", "symbol": "TDS", "name": "Telephone and Data Systems Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.475, "architecture_energy": 79.757, "architecture_maturity": 21.881, "architecture_confidence": 90.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.24, "rotation_up": 13.56, "upward_expansion": 18.5, "deceleration": 38.79, "rotation_down": 76.62, "downward_expansion": 96.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.674, 34.998522, 37.602678, 39.328422 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 32.98, "trend_reference": 41.148536, "distance_from_trend": -0.198513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.064231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.755938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278507, "excess_performance": -0.404132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037088, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.70592, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207559, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278507, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.353238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10133186, "relative_activity": 2.00622, "balance": 0.353238, "dry_up": 1.182386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085197, "annualized_volatility": 0.28266, "from_high_reference": -0.327901, "from_low_reference": 0.136716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.148536, "fair_value_reference": 26.064231, "structural_low": 31.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.004394, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.005467, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.268507, "worst_return": -0.327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022091, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030037, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.247975, "worst_return": -0.333521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04635, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013537, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.804796, "worst_return": -0.340854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.693162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108114, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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36.415971, 38.976053, 40.345999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.58, "volume": 3473692, "typical_volume": 4880624.6, "trend": 41.171767, "fair_value": 25.939512, "relative_strength": -16.690922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.333917, "energy": 84.946318, "activity_lines": [ 34.187333, 35.710155, 38.294805, 39.856923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.98, "volume": 10133186, "typical_volume": 5050884.05, "trend": 41.148536, "fair_value": 26.064231, "relative_strength": -20.755938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.474657, "energy": 79.756505, "activity_lines": [ 33.674, 34.998522, 37.602678, 39.328422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }