{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06a67a48-24d8-4ac1-8b34-d074fcf3dbf2", "symbol": "2087", "name": "NORINCHUKIN ZENKYOREN AM CO LTD", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.124, "architecture_energy": 24.546, "architecture_maturity": 66.685, "architecture_confidence": 77.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.68, "rotation_up": 23.72, "upward_expansion": 56.57, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 30.12, "downward_expansion": 20.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 3396.533333, 3423.563636, 3414.869999, 3322.784871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3438.0, "trend_reference": 3209.885376, "distance_from_trend": 0.071066, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2652.601321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.168159, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.18908, "excess_performance": -0.020178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071066, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046201, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036839, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.444212, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341231, "relative_activity": 6.657341, "balance": 1.444212, "dry_up": 2.756732, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030541, "annualized_volatility": 0.163783, "from_high_reference": -0.047645, "from_low_reference": 0.26367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3209.885376, "fair_value_reference": 2652.601321, "structural_low": 2720.645996, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.002299, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002299, "worst_return": 0.002299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.022003, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.123583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022003, "worst_return": -0.022003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.176366, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.142423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176366, "worst_return": 0.176366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.294378, "energy": 33.970321, "activity_lines": [ 3420.066667, 3454.2, 3396.869518, 3297.684106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3335.0, "volume": 223404, "typical_volume": 34197.65, "trend": 3196.785636, "fair_value": 2647.36533, "relative_strength": -9.660282, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.492332, "energy": 25.645337, "activity_lines": [ 3388.466667, 3428.254545, 3401.961994, 3307.222654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3438.0, "volume": 341231, "typical_volume": 51256.35, "trend": 3209.885376, "fair_value": 2652.601321, "relative_strength": -8.168159, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.123617, "energy": 24.545602, "activity_lines": [ 3396.533333, 3423.563636, 3414.869999, 3322.784871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }