{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06a8c279-0ea3-4fde-9d14-9875b02af5d2", "symbol": "AXTI", "name": "AXT Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.744, "architecture_energy": 18.346, "architecture_maturity": 31.895, "architecture_confidence": 94.848, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.61, "rotation_up": 26.83, "upward_expansion": 49.25, "deceleration": 84.53, "rotation_down": 37.05, "downward_expansion": 31.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.016, 64.956364, 77.576286, 74.062688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 88.58, "trend_reference": 64.091667, "distance_from_trend": 0.382083, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.186891, "distance_from_fair_value": 4.832662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 101.480917, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.681629, "excess_performance": 2.494176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.382083, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.412157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 4.832662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -7.647883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.014809, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.939123, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.681629, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.41514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85433864, "relative_activity": 1.561627, "balance": 1.41514, "dry_up": 1.069621, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.321218, "annualized_volatility": 1.395816, "from_high_reference": -0.381252, "from_low_reference": 42.209756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.091667, "fair_value_reference": 15.186891, "structural_low": 22.59, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047854, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049344, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206818, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.245455, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.216601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245455, "worst_return": 0.245455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.295455, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.44958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.295455, "worst_return": -0.295455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.490909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.787175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.490909, "worst_return": -0.490909, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.340426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111399, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032491, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.313043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054187, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 38.518692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.346258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.875503, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.34, "volume": 1470435, "typical_volume": 1933570.15, "trend": 3.687, "fair_value": 7.242981, "relative_strength": -56.892902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.851044, "energy": 73.412764, 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-3.23991, "energy": 20.603866, "activity_lines": [ 65.953333, 81.130909, 84.25119, 73.933011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.86, "volume": 47027689, "typical_volume": 53538323.0, "trend": 59.387667, "fair_value": 13.983494, "relative_strength": 18.511642, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.591223, "energy": 34.414179, "activity_lines": [ 56.858, 72.398182, 81.263381, 73.127376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.23, "volume": 31472980, "typical_volume": 52389596.0, "trend": 60.449667, "fair_value": 14.267083, "relative_strength": 21.312988, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.820613, "energy": 44.353641, "activity_lines": [ 51.640667, 65.196364, 78.368143, 72.343011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.43, "volume": 70133910, "typical_volume": 53044831.95, "trend": 61.905333, "fair_value": 14.635737, "relative_strength": 50.09049, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.596934, "energy": 41.739032, "activity_lines": [ 53.312667, 61.786364, 76.659286, 72.341742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.58, "volume": 85433864, "typical_volume": 54708247.6, "trend": 64.091667, "fair_value": 15.186891, "relative_strength": 101.480917, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.743677, "energy": 18.345604, "activity_lines": [ 65.016, 64.956364, 77.576286, 74.062688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }