{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06a8fcce-df3a-4436-90c6-ddf33dbd67d3", "symbol": "QNS", "name": "Southern Alliance Mining Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.489, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.752, "architecture_energy": 61.444, "architecture_maturity": 8.54, "architecture_confidence": 92.274, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.7, "rotation_up": 11.78, "upward_expansion": 13.52, "deceleration": 37.79, "rotation_down": 67.94, "downward_expansion": 89.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.411, 0.416364, 0.422571, 0.426441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.434667, "distance_from_trend": -0.056748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.496026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.623978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035294, "excess_performance": -0.190129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005785, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138129, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13000, "relative_activity": 0.076982, "balance": 0.447455, "dry_up": 0.404305, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042214, "annualized_volatility": 0.309896, "from_high_reference": -0.299145, "from_low_reference": 0.051282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.434667, "fair_value_reference": 0.496026, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.013167, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.029028, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.322222, "worst_return": -0.280702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029703, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.057065, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.330387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.13347, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.42, "worst_return": -0.268116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.282558, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.32342, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.35, "worst_return": -0.385185, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.398551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.462025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.356322, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146067, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119565, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.7, "volume": 34100, "typical_volume": 321535.0, "trend": 0.693167, "fair_value": 0.638092, "relative_strength": 14.357202, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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25.478234, "activity_lines": [ 0.423333, 0.425091, 0.428024, 0.431677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.405, "volume": 140100, "typical_volume": 217355.0, "trend": 0.435667, "fair_value": 0.499712, "relative_strength": -21.251653, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.987521, "energy": 44.219477, "activity_lines": [ 0.417, 0.421091, 0.425619, 0.429731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 187390.0, "trend": 0.435333, "fair_value": 0.497885, "relative_strength": -20.216452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.852815, "energy": 54.08651, "activity_lines": [ 0.413333, 0.418455, 0.424, 0.428075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 168870.0, "trend": 0.434667, "fair_value": 0.496026, "relative_strength": -20.623978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.752278, "energy": 61.444017, "activity_lines": [ 0.411, 0.416364, 0.422571, 0.426441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }