{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06a91f37-d096-4852-a98f-262207454cf3", "symbol": "SKFINDIA", "name": "SKF India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.203, "architecture_energy": 70.836, "architecture_maturity": 20.608, "architecture_confidence": 84.303, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.72, "rotation_up": 9.88, "upward_expansion": 15.85, "deceleration": 37.33, "rotation_down": 71.36, "downward_expansion": 89.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1504.00669, 1534.316764, 1574.195476, 1592.664286 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1534.300049, "trend_reference": 1628.074475, "distance_from_trend": -0.057598, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3927.508694, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.609345, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.947957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124508, "excess_performance": -0.080799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.609345, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103402, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.953105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 290380, "relative_activity": 1.965135, "balance": 0.953105, "dry_up": 1.621271, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048225, "annualized_volatility": 0.224043, "from_high_reference": -0.697615, "from_low_reference": 0.092806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1628.074475, "fair_value_reference": 3927.508694, "structural_low": 1404.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.021041, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025571, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.197254, "worst_return": -0.105194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026618, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.068265, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.593738, "worst_return": -0.228236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063624, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.446725, "worst_return": -0.451175, 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1603.142625, 1621.665792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1484.800049, "volume": 286514, "typical_volume": 147248.35, "trend": 1650.341142, "fair_value": 3972.708466, "relative_strength": -34.513099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.2521, "energy": 66.554585, "activity_lines": [ 1527.391659, 1556.362405, 1591.442467, 1610.353894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1479.599976, "volume": 125381, "typical_volume": 141571.45, "trend": 1637.747807, "fair_value": 3949.419077, "relative_strength": -34.595365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.629219, "energy": 74.773872, "activity_lines": [ 1501.953345, 1538.778673, 1579.965159, 1599.338335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1534.300049, "volume": 290380, "typical_volume": 147765.9, "trend": 1628.074475, "fair_value": 3927.508694, "relative_strength": -30.947957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.202775, "energy": 70.83631, "activity_lines": [ 1504.00669, 1534.316764, 1574.195476, 1592.664286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }