{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06ae7b98-360a-497d-958b-45afda9f1d4e", "symbol": "600753", "name": "Fujian Haiqin Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.167, "architecture_energy": 54.737, "architecture_maturity": 11.242, "architecture_confidence": 52.529, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.34, "rotation_up": 17.25, "upward_expansion": 19.65, "deceleration": 44.58, "rotation_down": 65.58, "downward_expansion": 58.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.089333, 10.621818, 11.490238, 11.544237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 11.160333, "distance_from_trend": -0.090529, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.104487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.667235, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145598, "excess_performance": 0.188802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.475056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066672, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.439015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145598, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.820535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6608093, "relative_activity": 0.603607, "balance": 0.820535, "dry_up": 0.679731, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132474, "annualized_volatility": 0.617038, "from_high_reference": -0.306694, "from_low_reference": 0.542553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.160333, "fair_value_reference": 8.104487, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04641, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047368, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142609, "worst_return": -0.28125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.195318, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.196988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.089844, "worst_return": -0.24625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.240056, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.133847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302734, "worst_return": -0.400886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.149477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052705, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 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18.57323, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.155488, "energy": 14.076284, "activity_lines": [ 11.488, 11.930727, 12.265, 11.777075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.82, "volume": 6864861, "typical_volume": 16138889.4, "trend": 10.991333, "fair_value": 8.092692, "relative_strength": 20.701398, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.668889, "energy": 21.802553, "activity_lines": [ 11.26, 11.637818, 12.135714, 11.771978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.17, "volume": 7298208, "typical_volume": 13798710.2, "trend": 11.063667, "fair_value": 8.097885, "relative_strength": 11.466786, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.289745, "energy": 42.877697, "activity_lines": [ 10.824, 11.279091, 11.94281, 11.718989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.31, "volume": 8994707, "typical_volume": 12397379.2, "trend": 11.105, "fair_value": 8.098526, "relative_strength": 1.157008, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.900531, "energy": 56.956108, "activity_lines": [ 10.264, 10.829818, 11.668619, 11.605849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 6608093, "typical_volume": 10947666.0, "trend": 11.160333, "fair_value": 8.104487, "relative_strength": 6.667235, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.167056, "energy": 54.736708, "activity_lines": [ 10.089333, 10.621818, 11.490238, 11.544237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }