{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06b15941-858b-4459-a5fd-00aa0417c4c1", "symbol": "STTX", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Communication Services UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.057, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.046, "architecture_energy": 15.447, "architecture_maturity": 25.376, "architecture_confidence": 69.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.93, "rotation_up": 35.13, "upward_expansion": 17.35, "deceleration": 40.74, "rotation_down": 26.89, "downward_expansion": 62.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.039332, 74.444181, 74.909714, 75.264817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 76.110001, "trend_reference": 75.313001, "distance_from_trend": 0.010583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.760769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091014, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.774083, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038336, "excess_performance": -0.132556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008386, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091014, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038336, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.644531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3269, "relative_activity": 0.660738, "balance": 1.644531, "dry_up": 1.800101, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026975, "annualized_volatility": 0.181558, "from_high_reference": -0.057345, "from_low_reference": 0.086355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.313001, "fair_value_reference": 69.760769, "structural_low": 71.400002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.015208, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.002363, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.045902, "worst_return": -0.047668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005836, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.083934, "worst_return": -0.096447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07073, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.135217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087716, "worst_return": -0.106882, 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"typical_volume": 4125.95, "trend": 75.079334, "fair_value": 69.394103, "relative_strength": -14.299328, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.42912, "energy": 55.938927, "activity_lines": [ 73.507334, 74.346728, 75.00562, 75.283979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.839996, "volume": 7586, "typical_volume": 4207.05, "trend": 75.093334, "fair_value": 69.491026, "relative_strength": -15.366533, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.756287, "energy": 53.427733, "activity_lines": [ 73.309332, 73.950182, 74.741286, 75.139506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.129997, "volume": 19387, "typical_volume": 4907.15, "trend": 75.204334, "fair_value": 69.625321, "relative_strength": -11.675912, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.298845, "energy": 8.525151, "activity_lines": [ 74.267331, 74.178181, 74.820667, 75.206387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.110001, "volume": 3269, "typical_volume": 4947.5, "trend": 75.313001, "fair_value": 69.760769, "relative_strength": -13.774083, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.0461, "energy": 15.447486, "activity_lines": [ 75.039332, 74.444181, 74.909714, 75.264817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }