{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "06b24256-f1ba-4824-a284-8f98f2f41d19",
    "symbol": "AEJ",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI AC Asia Pacific Ex Japan UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 27.887,
    "architecture_energy": 23.914,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.857,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.491,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.54,
        "rotation_up": 18.87,
        "upward_expansion": 52.88,
        "deceleration": 93.99,
        "rotation_down": 33.97,
        "downward_expansion": 18.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        97.222667,
        98.577673,
        98.053024,
        95.662704
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 98.139999,
    "trend_reference": 92.5228,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.060712,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 72.179794,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.35966,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 6.299868,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.147407,
    "excess_performance": 0.094095,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060712,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076879,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.35966,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.066007,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062999,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.158232,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.147407,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.304542,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 16951,
      "relative_activity": 0.293868,
      "balance": 3.304542,
      "dry_up": 0.421645,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.04174,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.214034,
      "from_high_reference": -0.065066,
      "from_low_reference": 0.348596
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 92.5228,
      "fair_value_reference": 72.179794,
      "structural_low": 80.919998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.021149,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017905,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 0.144754,
        "worst_return": -0.032248,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.070274,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.085216,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.23613,
        "worst_return": -0.021028,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.065062,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.031114,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.231353,
        "worst_return": -0.030357,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.067703,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004727,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.131128,
        "worst_return": 0.004278,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-02-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.039444,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.11078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.046611,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.135195,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.033955,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.091638,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.021149,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.002244,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
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        "return": 0.120199,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011336,
        "active": true
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 66110.5,
        "trend": 90.921533,
        "fair_value": 71.45498,
        "relative_strength": 9.209125,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 46.299004,
        "energy": 38.423668,
        "activity_lines": [
          99.47,
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          94.570411
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 97.040001,
        "volume": 23502,
        "typical_volume": 57997.45,
        "trend": 91.5287,
        "fair_value": 71.68607,
        "relative_strength": 10.140493,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.900854,
        "energy": 25.512332,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 96.230003,
        "volume": 46284,
        "typical_volume": 58766.9,
        "trend": 92.029234,
        "fair_value": 71.921807,
        "relative_strength": 7.113443,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.666178,
        "energy": 23.689786,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.242001,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 98.139999,
        "volume": 16951,
        "typical_volume": 57682.35,
        "trend": 92.5228,
        "fair_value": 72.179794,
        "relative_strength": 6.299868,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.886964,
        "energy": 23.913811,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}