{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06b43277-0260-4c6e-850c-c2dd2bb21129", "symbol": "QRC", "name": "Queen's Road Capital Investment Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.726, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.118, "architecture_energy": 15.741, "architecture_maturity": 29.725, "architecture_confidence": 51.72, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.06, "rotation_up": 49.85, "upward_expansion": 32.16, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 20.42, "downward_expansion": 23.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.237333, 13.913091, 14.138125, 14.283717 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.53, "trend_reference": 14.282775, "distance_from_trend": 0.017309, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.623961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.684841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.625778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093577, "excess_performance": -0.026844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017309, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.684841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.096258, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093577, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7500, "relative_activity": 0.209966, "balance": 0.739284, "dry_up": 0.943449, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06969, "annualized_volatility": 0.445588, "from_high_reference": -0.25235, "from_low_reference": 1.176814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.282775, "fair_value_reference": 8.623961, "structural_low": 12.79, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028914, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009637, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.172161, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007246, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004227, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.270963, "worst_return": -0.054054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026841, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.3908, "worst_return": -0.194629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 8.315452, "relative_strength": 6.680178, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.128396, "energy": 37.030252, "activity_lines": [ 13.613333, 14.056244, 14.495783, 14.28521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.25, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 43130.0, "trend": 13.686269, "fair_value": 8.361793, "relative_strength": 7.248213, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.965025, "energy": 46.876866, "activity_lines": [ 13.414, 13.839601, 14.3677, 14.266836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.01, "volume": 26800, "typical_volume": 43680.0, "trend": 13.8271, "fair_value": 8.407765, "relative_strength": 4.471051, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.402684, "energy": 59.398507, "activity_lines": [ 13.204667, 13.618568, 14.218587, 14.223206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.75, "volume": 35000, "typical_volume": 42760.0, "trend": 13.976402, "fair_value": 8.457896, "relative_strength": 9.712564, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.185306, "energy": 47.433272, "activity_lines": [ 13.341333, 13.579658, 14.142684, 14.218231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.8, "volume": 33900, "typical_volume": 39230.0, "trend": 14.127654, "fair_value": 8.514757, "relative_strength": 16.683447, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.344993, "energy": 7.809615, "activity_lines": [ 13.834667, 13.761091, 14.16788, 14.271367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 58400, "typical_volume": 38050.0, "trend": 14.210924, "fair_value": 8.56766, "relative_strength": 9.95854, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.004001, "energy": 8.551673, "activity_lines": [ 13.981333, 13.781273, 14.122144, 14.263131 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.53, "volume": 7500, "typical_volume": 35720.0, "trend": 14.282775, "fair_value": 8.623961, "relative_strength": 9.625778, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.117752, "energy": 15.740691, "activity_lines": [ 14.237333, 13.913091, 14.138125, 14.283717 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }