{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06b5dd64-065b-4a53-9763-e40d1dc6da6d", "symbol": "SCHM", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR US MID-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.808, "architecture_energy": 26.551, "architecture_maturity": 58.007, "architecture_confidence": 85.819, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.65, "rotation_up": 31.42, "upward_expansion": 58.25, "deceleration": 88.05, "rotation_down": 27.06, "downward_expansion": 19.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.334, 35.491285, 35.141075, 34.43469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.09, "trend_reference": 33.595602, "distance_from_trend": 0.074248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.705082, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302649, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.972432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10837, "excess_performance": -0.017255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05779, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002175, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009724, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10837, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.30223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4450589, "relative_activity": 0.828814, "balance": 1.30223, "dry_up": 0.871607, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034854, "annualized_volatility": 0.153676, "from_high_reference": -0.021951, "from_low_reference": 0.294205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.595602, "fair_value_reference": 27.705082, "structural_low": 29.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010007, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.01186, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.110652, "worst_return": -0.069001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073168, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183778, "worst_return": -0.15448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.097357, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032094, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.183316, "worst_return": 0.030629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.121396, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24339, "worst_return": -0.000599, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010945, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032097, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054559, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037092, "active": 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33.927304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.99, "volume": 4519460, "typical_volume": 5910361.9, "trend": 33.155479, "fair_value": 27.473941, "relative_strength": 2.055109, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.8563, "energy": 46.185753, "activity_lines": [ 35.63085, 35.571365, 34.774505, 34.055581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.99, "volume": 4232545, "typical_volume": 5656129.5, "trend": 33.302609, "fair_value": 27.547356, "relative_strength": 2.586179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.131309, "energy": 33.055853, "activity_lines": [ 35.364667, 35.509854, 34.888863, 34.173937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.7, "volume": 5518922, "typical_volume": 5430929.8, "trend": 33.445724, "fair_value": 27.621394, "relative_strength": 0.583602, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.024277, "energy": 21.980724, "activity_lines": [ 35.068, 35.374871, 34.958098, 34.264092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.09, "volume": 4450589, "typical_volume": 5369826.05, "trend": 33.595602, "fair_value": 27.705082, "relative_strength": 0.972432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.808133, "energy": 26.551339, "activity_lines": [ 35.334, 35.491285, 35.141075, 34.43469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }