{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06b9e7c8-8ee1-43f0-aa6c-b2632f8db391", "symbol": "DWAS", "name": "INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT SMALLCAP MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.633, "architecture_energy": 22.831, "architecture_maturity": 64.961, "architecture_confidence": 81.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.04, "rotation_up": 26.71, "upward_expansion": 57.34, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 18.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.579093, 117.137215, 116.043027, 112.906791 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 118.0253, "trend_reference": 108.948787, "distance_from_trend": 0.08331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.571992, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.229055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152591, "excess_performance": -0.034863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08331, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012291, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003713, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152591, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514314, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59100, "relative_activity": 0.766497, "balance": 0.514314, "dry_up": 0.663792, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053234, "annualized_volatility": 0.215901, "from_high_reference": -0.076268, "from_low_reference": 0.398151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.948787, "fair_value_reference": 90.571992, "structural_low": 93.7601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.032678, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.008216, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.081393, "worst_return": -0.08703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053356, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.044911, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.103413, "worst_return": -0.155248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.124413, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028589, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.193714, "worst_return": -0.119229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 107.308277, "fair_value": 89.8899, "relative_strength": 4.370564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.293439, "energy": 50.348881, "activity_lines": [ 119.347807, 118.536235, 115.113128, 111.564512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.8429, "volume": 44785, "typical_volume": 75821.25, "trend": 107.803063, "fair_value": 90.104398, "relative_strength": 3.520969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.817677, "energy": 30.55046, "activity_lines": [ 117.223547, 117.913935, 115.414686, 111.9861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.39, "volume": 55113, "typical_volume": 75650.35, "trend": 108.341533, "fair_value": 90.316239, "relative_strength": 1.47977, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.518418, "energy": 22.108442, "activity_lines": [ 115.08864, 117.002493, 115.50086, 112.282032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.0253, "volume": 59100, "typical_volume": 77104.0, "trend": 108.948787, "fair_value": 90.571992, "relative_strength": 1.229055, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.632811, "energy": 22.830882, "activity_lines": [ 115.579093, 117.137215, 116.043027, 112.906791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }