{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06bf9f18-ae50-41ba-888d-8188a7bcc682", "symbol": "SDY", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.954, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.508, "architecture_energy": 53.338, "architecture_maturity": 20.576, "architecture_confidence": 67.176, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.66, "rotation_up": 68.77, "upward_expansion": 82.38, "deceleration": 54.31, "rotation_down": 15.34, "downward_expansion": 6.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.021333, 154.921265, 152.390958, 151.231826 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 157.83, "trend_reference": 150.161464, "distance_from_trend": 0.051069, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.46765, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.983157, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035109, "excess_performance": -0.090516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051069, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034861, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054032, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03895, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035109, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1132332, "relative_activity": 1.06386, "balance": 1.625096, "dry_up": 0.931585, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024667, "annualized_volatility": 0.10707, "from_high_reference": -0.015347, "from_low_reference": 0.182114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.161464, "fair_value_reference": 131.46765, "structural_low": 142.616405, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002261, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.003353, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.059655, "worst_return": -0.061353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0194, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.033104, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.048781, "worst_return": -0.073757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048532, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.066822, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.081665, "worst_return": -0.064489, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 1051804.7, "trend": 149.657326, "fair_value": 131.195788, "relative_strength": -1.484168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.074212, "energy": 50.586037, "activity_lines": [ 155.116, 153.99127, 151.615522, 150.704557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.83, "volume": 1132332, "typical_volume": 1064362.25, "trend": 150.161464, "fair_value": 131.46765, "relative_strength": -2.983157, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.507632, "energy": 53.338317, "activity_lines": [ 156.021333, 154.921265, 152.390958, 151.231826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }