{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06c242fc-f932-46af-905d-5a660de37ae2", "symbol": "156080", "name": "KODEX MSCI Korea", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.208, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.86, "architecture_energy": 29.039, "architecture_maturity": 64.193, "architecture_confidence": 80.598, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.07, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 42.81, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 53.59, "downward_expansion": 39.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 50128.578385, 54854.533665, 55873.363858, 52777.903973 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46205.0, "trend_reference": 48125.883073, "distance_from_trend": -0.039914, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23339.904428, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.979657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.102835, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.325075, "excess_performance": 0.095246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039914, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.979657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.77162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071028, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.325075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.250992, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19734, "relative_activity": 0.670767, "balance": 1.250992, "dry_up": 0.872424, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157256, "annualized_volatility": 0.545065, "from_high_reference": -0.366187, "from_low_reference": 1.453415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48125.883073, "fair_value_reference": 23339.904428, "structural_low": 34829.998544, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045862, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.320332, "worst_return": -0.028671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081423, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.021676, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.395794, "worst_return": -0.002027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.074484, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098892, "worst_return": 0.050076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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60780.985582, 56661.341202, 52248.928717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50553.625, "volume": 26140, "typical_volume": 29806.65, "trend": 46864.468359, "fair_value": 22910.852602, "relative_strength": 10.603082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.747256, "energy": 26.666655, "activity_lines": [ 54916.308073, 58886.621307, 56548.147768, 52537.073068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52025.0, "volume": 35397, "typical_volume": 29721.05, "trend": 47632.652604, "fair_value": 23143.51339, "relative_strength": 14.866723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.970006, "energy": 25.134636, "activity_lines": [ 53021.314062, 57344.804758, 56520.407943, 52870.010593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46205.0, "volume": 19734, "typical_volume": 29420.05, "trend": 48125.883073, "fair_value": 23339.904428, "relative_strength": 7.102835, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.860051, "energy": 29.039235, "activity_lines": [ 50128.578385, 54854.533665, 55873.363858, 52777.903973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }