{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06c25a90-857f-4763-b44d-e366a8334de0", "symbol": "GAP", "name": "The Gap, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.576, "architecture_energy": 38.681, "architecture_maturity": 64.989, "architecture_confidence": 77.063, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.03, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 10.36, "deceleration": 59.61, "rotation_down": 41.59, "downward_expansion": 72.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.993333, 19.99619, 21.008689, 22.063301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.47, "trend_reference": 23.581757, "distance_from_trend": -0.131956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.093982, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029581, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.733155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.292452, "excess_performance": -0.418077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029581, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100985, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24502347, "relative_activity": 0.668583, "balance": 0.932253, "dry_up": 0.84966, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094173, "annualized_volatility": 0.448865, "from_high_reference": -0.297995, "from_low_reference": 0.141094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.581757, "fair_value_reference": 21.093982, "structural_low": 17.93892, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.028649, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 5.7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.431783, "worst_return": -0.317083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063102, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042121, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.443007, "worst_return": -0.403364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067584, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.372467, "worst_return": -0.393765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-70.305732, "energy": 62.597852, "activity_lines": [ 19.532359, 20.068444, 21.414326, 22.532531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.09, "volume": 25932691, "typical_volume": 37466109.6, "trend": 23.836972, "fair_value": 21.025555, "relative_strength": -21.693559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.825751, "energy": 46.323989, "activity_lines": [ 19.701877, 19.967771, 21.18629, 22.280525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.47, "volume": 24502347, "typical_volume": 36648172.0, "trend": 23.581757, "fair_value": 21.093982, "relative_strength": -22.733155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.575889, "energy": 38.68105, "activity_lines": [ 19.993333, 19.99619, 21.008689, 22.063301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }