{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "06c6c1f3-818a-433b-9786-2c3ad016c151",
    "symbol": "MZTI",
    "name": "The Marzetti Company",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -59.902,
    "architecture_energy": 51.49,
    "architecture_maturity": 76.308,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.691,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.42,
        "rotation_up": 27.29,
        "upward_expansion": 8.1,
        "deceleration": 57.08,
        "rotation_down": 48.71,
        "downward_expansion": 79.1
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        109.702,
        110.678545,
        113.07624,
        120.301855
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 113.48,
    "trend_reference": 131.686914,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.138259,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 163.840662,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307376,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -33.406353,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.255251,
    "excess_performance": -0.442704,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.138259,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.120193,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.307376,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029243,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.334064,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088328,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.255251,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.899644,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1452688,
      "relative_activity": 0.887957,
      "balance": 0.899644,
      "dry_up": 0.900087,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.06291,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.30455,
      "from_high_reference": -0.389606,
      "from_low_reference": 0.088276
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 131.686914,
      "fair_value_reference": 163.840662,
      "structural_low": 104.275,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.00042,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016285,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.241923,
        "worst_return": -0.205374,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.019411,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
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        "best_return": 0.160062,
        "worst_return": -0.250019,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.32177,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1655498.35,
        "trend": 137.126196,
        "fair_value": 165.168738,
        "relative_strength": -36.978428,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.726445,
        "energy": 45.520174,
        "activity_lines": [
          112.078,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 107.19,
        "volume": 1269879,
        "typical_volume": 1681724.55,
        "trend": 135.255413,
        "fair_value": 164.704381,
        "relative_strength": -35.13421,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.368841,
        "energy": 53.541397,
        "activity_lines": [
          110.427333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 106.87,
        "volume": 1579716,
        "typical_volume": 1693526.65,
        "trend": 133.416632,
        "fair_value": 164.231083,
        "relative_strength": -34.868818,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.480203,
        "energy": 55.719258,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.661333,
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          113.65403,
          121.58809
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 113.48,
        "volume": 1452688,
        "typical_volume": 1635989.75,
        "trend": 131.686914,
        "fair_value": 163.840662,
        "relative_strength": -33.406353,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.901705,
        "energy": 51.489543,
        "activity_lines": [
          109.702,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}