{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06cb6219-f3d3-4a8b-b901-2a1c40fee8bd", "symbol": "HAP", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK NATURAL RESOURCES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.508, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.558, "architecture_energy": 22.757, "architecture_maturity": 26.821, "architecture_confidence": 61.217, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.98, "rotation_up": 57.01, "upward_expansion": 39.2, "deceleration": 43.69, "rotation_down": 20.69, "downward_expansion": 18.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.3442, 70.521055, 70.921229, 71.055105 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 72.84, "trend_reference": 70.79371, "distance_from_trend": 0.028905, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.278813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367148, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.27966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050779, "excess_performance": -0.074846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028905, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055429, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.367148, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002797, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67566, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201356, "relative_activity": 1.193625, "balance": 0.67566, "dry_up": 1.142692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027969, "annualized_volatility": 0.145758, "from_high_reference": -0.023985, "from_low_reference": 0.40524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.79371, "fair_value_reference": 53.278813, "structural_low": 67.39, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012459, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01299, "regime_survival": 0.388889, "best_return": 0.066636, "worst_return": -0.061353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003893, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.015791, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.091603, "worst_return": -0.043477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059992, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003607, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148686, "worst_return": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046982, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.444738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 52.010645, "relative_strength": 4.151351, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.764933, "energy": 17.991418, "activity_lines": [ 71.477333, 71.981818, 71.914452, 70.641078 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 69.55, "volume": 229039, "typical_volume": 153435.95, "trend": 68.459009, "fair_value": 52.178741, "relative_strength": 0.624933, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.099464, "energy": 13.472238, "activity_lines": [ 70.723333, 71.472727, 71.723571, 70.740243 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 68.32, "volume": 299777, "typical_volume": 159611.65, "trend": 68.787176, "fair_value": 52.332051, "relative_strength": 1.038643, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.698386, "energy": 28.548739, "activity_lines": [ 69.779333, 70.814182, 71.404714, 70.731275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 69.1, "volume": 80501, "typical_volume": 153081.55, "trend": 69.127686, "fair_value": 52.491771, "relative_strength": -0.14116, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.161523, "energy": 30.937139, "activity_lines": [ 69.366, 70.378909, 71.164905, 70.751457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 68.9, "volume": 307640, "typical_volume": 163163.35, "trend": 69.432846, "fair_value": 52.643027, "relative_strength": -1.899129, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.569624, "energy": 49.10969, "activity_lines": [ 69.079333, 69.967273, 70.918238, 70.736767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.56, "volume": 302375, "typical_volume": 170553.4, "trend": 69.767177, "fair_value": 52.792576, "relative_strength": 0.372533, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.068707, "energy": 45.025315, "activity_lines": [ 69.126, 69.749091, 70.75119, 70.744971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.261, "volume": 152362, "typical_volume": 168836.15, "trend": 70.11921, "fair_value": 52.950503, "relative_strength": 3.159493, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.128614, "energy": 16.314559, "activity_lines": [ 69.851, 69.896727, 70.768, 70.841347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.04, "volume": 114963, "typical_volume": 167098.15, "trend": 70.447543, "fair_value": 53.109954, "relative_strength": 1.472578, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.363545, "energy": 7.304469, "activity_lines": [ 70.388267, 70.033073, 70.760186, 70.900752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.84, "volume": 201356, "typical_volume": 168692.9, "trend": 70.79371, "fair_value": 53.278813, "relative_strength": 0.27966, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.55802, "energy": 22.7573, "activity_lines": [ 71.3442, 70.521055, 70.921229, 71.055105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }