{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06cbd92e-bfa2-4121-91be-f5bd9fb2ef43", "symbol": "PMVP", "name": "Pmv Pharmaceuticals\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.021, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.531, "architecture_energy": 20.602, "architecture_maturity": 18.14, "architecture_confidence": 72.512, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.98, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 13.31, "deceleration": 32.34, "rotation_down": 34.24, "downward_expansion": 61.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.202, 1.204, 1.226952, 1.261032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.19, "trend_reference": 1.272333, "distance_from_trend": -0.064711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.756163, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.720306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144231, "excess_performance": -0.043223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322386, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144231, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94458, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2891385, "relative_activity": 1.613681, "balance": 0.94458, "dry_up": 1.131059, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136774, "annualized_volatility": 0.805676, "from_high_reference": -0.367021, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.272333, "fair_value_reference": 1.756163, "structural_low": 1.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.086667, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.100196, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.174603, "worst_return": -0.766091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.195652, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.185522, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.088889, "worst_return": -0.530612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.410015, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.313615, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.063492, "worst_return": -0.492701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.524505, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.543054, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.015873, "worst_return": -0.76351, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154321, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049645, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101449, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.211765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040323, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.19, "volume": 2755814, "typical_volume": 1911169.7, "trend": 6.146667, "fair_value": 21.27, "relative_strength": -26.120981, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.201333, 1.193455, 1.260048, 1.275011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.34, "volume": 2863319, "typical_volume": 2385286.7, "trend": 1.276, "fair_value": 1.876291, "relative_strength": -9.312502, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.441161, "energy": 10.486953, "activity_lines": [ 1.255333, 1.215818, 1.260429, 1.279355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.24, "volume": 682353, "typical_volume": 1769250.5, "trend": 1.276, "fair_value": 1.840971, "relative_strength": -14.185734, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.336309, "energy": 8.995258, "activity_lines": [ 1.260667, 1.221273, 1.253, 1.277032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.11, "volume": 1669447, "typical_volume": 1723301.65, "trend": 1.272, "fair_value": 1.805778, "relative_strength": -22.954263, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.273811, "energy": 19.989588, "activity_lines": [ 1.215333, 1.204, 1.235095, 1.266323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.19, "volume": 2891385, "typical_volume": 1791794.8, "trend": 1.272333, "fair_value": 1.756163, "relative_strength": -20.720306, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.53135, "energy": 20.6018, "activity_lines": [ 1.202, 1.204, 1.226952, 1.261032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }