{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06d19a9d-3b4d-4ef9-a718-52020a62fb78", "symbol": "600148", "name": "Changchun Yidong Clutch CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.483, "architecture_energy": 56.809, "architecture_maturity": 74.152, "architecture_confidence": 95.881, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 22.45, "upward_expansion": 9.58, "deceleration": 59.57, "rotation_down": 58.36, "downward_expansion": 82.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.604667, 14.829723, 15.918552, 16.732785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.0, "trend_reference": 17.880363, "distance_from_trend": -0.161091, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.32761, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.306883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268293, "excess_performance": -0.225089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086574, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.259739, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7987733, "relative_activity": 1.005849, "balance": 0.259739, "dry_up": 1.111797, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080783, "annualized_volatility": 0.298701, "from_high_reference": -0.371069, "from_low_reference": 0.146789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.880363, "fair_value_reference": 17.32761, "structural_low": 13.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.032703, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.04166, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.355555, "worst_return": -0.171448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012669, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.000588, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 1.018644, "worst_return": -0.202621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.201632, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002773, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.617797, "worst_return": -0.195708, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 67.813931, "activity_lines": [ 14.464667, 15.089732, 16.328941, 17.153993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.7, "volume": 8545832, "typical_volume": 7947146.1, "trend": 18.032697, "fair_value": 17.333697, "relative_strength": -20.433761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.352353, "energy": 62.888923, "activity_lines": [ 14.488, 14.895793, 16.099223, 16.928442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.0, "volume": 7987733, "typical_volume": 7941287.45, "trend": 17.880363, "fair_value": 17.32761, "relative_strength": -20.306883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.483301, "energy": 56.809208, "activity_lines": [ 14.604667, 14.829723, 15.918552, 16.732785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }