{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06e7c2cc-40d5-4311-8680-70bc2dca4daf", "symbol": "NGVC", "name": "Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.136, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.033, "architecture_energy": 15.293, "architecture_maturity": 60.936, "architecture_confidence": 72.59, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.49, "rotation_up": 31.4, "upward_expansion": 61.39, "deceleration": 82.27, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 20.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.571333, 31.163636, 30.400962, 29.432678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.39, "trend_reference": 28.2707, "distance_from_trend": 0.00422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.172883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.007707, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.230975, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085723, "excess_performance": -0.039901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.007707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016743, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136124, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085723, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.233503, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 984454, "relative_activity": 1.583017, "balance": 2.233503, "dry_up": 1.023463, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108654, "annualized_volatility": 0.396371, "from_high_reference": -0.303863, "from_low_reference": 0.222653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.2707, "fair_value_reference": 28.172883, "structural_low": 24.076025, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.024185, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": 0.024265, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.319081, "worst_return": -0.249179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.223599, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.105977, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.659123, "worst_return": -0.148256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.3563, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.308871, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.756451, "worst_return": -0.362116, "sufficient": true }, 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"relative_strength": -9.048984, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.608111, "energy": 41.144135, "activity_lines": [ 31.796667, 31.514545, 30.183675, 29.148561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.06, "volume": 439696, "typical_volume": 612895.05, "trend": 28.150142, "fair_value": 28.066584, "relative_strength": -3.133192, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.022961, "energy": 37.50305, "activity_lines": [ 31.794, 31.702727, 30.482774, 29.417203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.39, "volume": 984454, "typical_volume": 621884.6, "trend": 28.2707, "fair_value": 28.172883, "relative_strength": -16.230975, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.033065, "energy": 15.293411, "activity_lines": [ 30.571333, 31.163636, 30.400962, 29.432678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }