{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06e8a26e-c72e-4cb6-85f5-da0cd63f5350", "symbol": "ALANKIT", "name": "Alankit Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.389, "architecture_energy": 45.69, "architecture_maturity": 12.788, "architecture_confidence": 90.376, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.13, "rotation_up": 15.83, "upward_expansion": 7.03, "deceleration": 44.87, "rotation_down": 61.63, "downward_expansion": 82.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.949333, 8.048545, 8.318952, 8.391935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.08, "trend_reference": 8.594333, "distance_from_trend": -0.059846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.475256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.361876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141339, "excess_performance": -0.09763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00623, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 554725, "relative_activity": 0.75917, "balance": 0.72096, "dry_up": 0.604719, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069402, "annualized_volatility": 0.336291, "from_high_reference": -0.465962, "from_low_reference": 0.188235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.594333, "fair_value_reference": 15.475256, "structural_low": 6.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.054924, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058182, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.305322, "worst_return": -0.229299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.149978, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.098742, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.273973, "worst_return": -0.317757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.173822, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211938, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.079829, "worst_return": -0.435252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.203712, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021978, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207382, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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8.091333, 8.236727, 8.457, 8.553398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.96, "volume": 355066, "typical_volume": 850211.45, "trend": 8.776333, "fair_value": 15.512051, "relative_strength": -20.100053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.141656, "energy": 59.722832, "activity_lines": [ 8.01, 8.161455, 8.41281, 8.494495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.78, "volume": 401865, "typical_volume": 800239.95, "trend": 8.673333, "fair_value": 15.492692, "relative_strength": -22.799972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.578291, "energy": 61.524425, "activity_lines": [ 7.911333, 8.07, 8.351429, 8.430215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.08, "volume": 554725, "typical_volume": 730699.65, "trend": 8.594333, "fair_value": 15.475256, "relative_strength": -19.361876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.388758, "energy": 45.690456, "activity_lines": [ 7.949333, 8.048545, 8.318952, 8.391935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }