{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06f2bf08-8a2c-4abd-a0fc-8026bee8034a", "symbol": "6290", "name": "Longwell Company", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.632, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.533, "architecture_energy": 55.231, "architecture_maturity": 9.374, "architecture_confidence": 77.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.63, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 26.56, "deceleration": 50.12, "rotation_down": 68.01, "downward_expansion": 53.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 214.882741, 239.346269, 262.339181, 256.519277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 218.5, "trend_reference": 240.685521, "distance_from_trend": -0.092176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 115.902182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.88521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.629502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.302614, "excess_performance": -0.138758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129082, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.88521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.823647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.273457, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13633394, "relative_activity": 0.487171, "balance": 1.273457, "dry_up": 0.496008, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187705, "annualized_volatility": 0.857408, "from_high_reference": -0.402534, "from_low_reference": 1.267708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 240.685521, "fair_value_reference": 115.902182, "structural_low": 172.615818, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.136445, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.094195, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30963, "worst_return": -0.069204, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043883, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.045305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.607407, "worst_return": -0.095156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.144185, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.096783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.115521, "worst_return": -0.093426, "sufficient": false 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.098237, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005917, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.325549, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.895599, "energy": 18.250911, "activity_lines": [ 257.979073, 279.136547, 278.151476, 262.056679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 208.0, "volume": 14422433, "typical_volume": 31967899.6, "trend": 238.192829, "fair_value": 113.91118, "relative_strength": -17.569941, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.466126, "energy": 37.098674, "activity_lines": [ 236.97393, 264.008677, 272.695588, 260.16912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.0, "volume": 18368136, "typical_volume": 28546937.45, "trend": 238.879733, "fair_value": 114.842007, "relative_strength": -21.984684, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.329264, "energy": 49.887558, "activity_lines": [ 219.639239, 248.937427, 266.6925, 257.834098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 218.5, "volume": 13633394, "typical_volume": 27984839.35, "trend": 240.685521, "fair_value": 115.902182, "relative_strength": -18.629502, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.533452, "energy": 55.230595, "activity_lines": [ 214.882741, 239.346269, 262.339181, 256.519277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }