{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06f3bd10-6d5c-430c-a04e-154372aaa3ee", "symbol": "GSHD", "name": "Goosehead Insurance Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 54.518, "architecture_energy": 76.346, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.99, "rotation_up": 80.42, "upward_expansion": 69.24, "deceleration": 18.12, "rotation_down": 16.25, "downward_expansion": 25.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.823333, 55.541091, 49.238429, 47.973505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 65.2, "trend_reference": 49.063, "distance_from_trend": 0.328904, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.029173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142434, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.51007, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014659, "excess_performance": -0.202113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.328904, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131948, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142434, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.326652, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.480524, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.254561, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2362681, "relative_activity": 0.934914, "balance": 4.254561, "dry_up": 1.195574, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112453, "annualized_volatility": 0.837577, "from_high_reference": -0.281859, "from_low_reference": 0.935867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.063, "fair_value_reference": 76.029173, "structural_low": 33.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104608, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.099524, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.163076, "worst_return": -0.094497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.216261, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.153141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224515, "worst_return": 0.14836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.200688, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.053273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.382853, "worst_return": -0.244452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"volume": 3413381, "typical_volume": 2452467.55, "trend": 49.657667, "fair_value": 76.005182, "relative_strength": -13.152348, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.632116, "energy": 64.787432, "activity_lines": [ 54.916, 49.301455, 45.580571, 46.156946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.0, "volume": 3973343, "typical_volume": 2546897.1, "trend": 49.385667, "fair_value": 75.998906, "relative_strength": -7.677772, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.514367, "energy": 73.811409, "activity_lines": [ 57.840667, 52.315091, 47.299571, 46.953226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.2, "volume": 2362681, "typical_volume": 2527164.9, "trend": 49.063, "fair_value": 76.029173, "relative_strength": -6.51007, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.518036, "energy": 76.345549, "activity_lines": [ 60.823333, 55.541091, 49.238429, 47.973505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }