{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06f70cb6-41ef-46ee-87c2-021acec69884", "symbol": "BKK", "name": "Luxking Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.135, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.437, "architecture_energy": 25.978, "architecture_maturity": 64.684, "architecture_confidence": 67.225, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.39, "rotation_up": 28.37, "upward_expansion": 18.14, "deceleration": 64.17, "rotation_down": 37.61, "downward_expansion": 68.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.463333, 0.459091, 0.477524, 0.496903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.53, "trend_reference": 0.528833, "distance_from_trend": 0.002206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.410321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.459167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116667, "excess_performance": -0.271502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291673, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098164, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.043011, "balance": 0.394015, "dry_up": 0.010753, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073295, "annualized_volatility": 0.61924, "from_high_reference": -0.361446, "from_low_reference": 0.737705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.528833, "fair_value_reference": 0.410321, "structural_low": 0.305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.291667, "median_excess_return": 0.012502, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.533742, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.04869, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.533742, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.234568, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.073883, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.453125, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.194927, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.059357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.675, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.381579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081633, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 665.0, "trend": 0.198133, "fair_value": 0.258712, "relative_strength": 20.506513, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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0, "typical_volume": 5525.0, "trend": 0.545833, "fair_value": 0.402628, "relative_strength": -16.152025, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.305463, "energy": 79.539412, "activity_lines": [ 0.49, 0.495364, 0.515286, 0.531344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5525.0, "trend": 0.540833, "fair_value": 0.403782, "relative_strength": -26.920447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.357574, "energy": 92.213812, "activity_lines": [ 0.47, 0.481455, 0.505619, 0.523871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5525.0, "trend": 0.536667, "fair_value": 0.404936, "relative_strength": -29.680321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.370432, "energy": 93.776878, "activity_lines": [ 0.454, 0.469909, 0.496762, 0.51672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5525.0, "trend": 0.5325, "fair_value": 0.40609, "relative_strength": -29.968333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.120772, "energy": 91.966953, "activity_lines": [ 0.442, 0.460727, 0.488714, 0.509839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4640.0, "trend": 0.530167, "fair_value": 0.407244, "relative_strength": -30.344742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.45464, "energy": 89.107977, "activity_lines": [ 0.434, 0.453455, 0.481476, 0.503226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4640.0, "trend": 0.527833, "fair_value": 0.408462, "relative_strength": -30.175533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.536685, "energy": 83.690983, "activity_lines": [ 0.43, 0.446364, 0.474571, 0.496763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.53, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 4650.0, "trend": 0.528833, "fair_value": 0.410321, "relative_strength": -14.459167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.436671, "energy": 25.977722, "activity_lines": [ 0.463333, 0.459091, 0.477524, 0.496903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }