{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06fd2b18-8938-4613-89da-ed0f03aa61d1", "symbol": "WNDE", "name": "Invesco Markets II Plc - Invesco Wind Energy Ucits ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.351, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.863, "architecture_energy": 27.479, "architecture_maturity": 51.835, "architecture_confidence": 84.428, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.84, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 44.02, "deceleration": 85.81, "rotation_down": 48.42, "downward_expansion": 38.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.334933, 6.460727, 6.589362, 6.474908 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.498, "trend_reference": 6.2821, "distance_from_trend": 0.034367, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.586125, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.793008, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13661, "excess_performance": -0.034282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034367, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08432, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416882, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13661, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.108038, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1109, "relative_activity": 0.036328, "balance": 0.108038, "dry_up": 3.63331, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038686, "annualized_volatility": 0.233816, "from_high_reference": -0.098752, "from_low_reference": 0.468475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.2821, "fair_value_reference": 4.586125, "structural_low": 5.449, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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0.002819, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.162946, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002819, "worst_return": 0.002819, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024897, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032783, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049497, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012447, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.267397, "energy": 42.838311, "activity_lines": [ 6.795733, 6.847873, 6.64771, 6.421634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.454, "volume": 3998, "typical_volume": 9794.75, "trend": 6.1329, "fair_value": 4.53108, "relative_strength": 0.144872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.929648, "energy": 28.691904, "activity_lines": [ 6.673467, 6.773927, 6.651067, 6.445204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.241, "volume": 4575, "typical_volume": 9810.2, "trend": 6.171667, "fair_value": 4.543647, "relative_strength": -1.922689, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.06754, "energy": 23.384438, "activity_lines": [ 6.510467, 6.664909, 6.631967, 6.452178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.334, "volume": 6016, "typical_volume": 10087.5, "trend": 6.212767, "fair_value": 4.557154, "relative_strength": -0.467534, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.796518, "energy": 25.527394, "activity_lines": [ 6.4134, 6.586764, 6.621, 6.462652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.149, "volume": 431962, "typical_volume": 30854.3, "trend": 6.244267, "fair_value": 4.570218, "relative_strength": -4.156979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.814448, "energy": 36.712813, "activity_lines": [ 6.298533, 6.484327, 6.589481, 6.458538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.498, "volume": 1109, "typical_volume": 30527.4, "trend": 6.2821, "fair_value": 4.586125, "relative_strength": -1.793008, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.862622, "energy": 27.479135, "activity_lines": [ 6.334933, 6.460727, 6.589362, 6.474908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }