{ "ticker": { "uuid": "06fd871d-7d31-4ce4-8ead-baaaa6377a38", "symbol": "SNY", "name": "Sanofi ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.807, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.442, "architecture_energy": 12.957, "architecture_maturity": 28.092, "architecture_confidence": 79.137, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.39, "rotation_up": 22.73, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 38.63, "rotation_down": 38.88, "downward_expansion": 58.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.499333, 43.472727, 43.630501, 43.699554 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.46, "trend_reference": 43.850711, "distance_from_trend": -0.00891, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.440785, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04359, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.886834, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040589, "excess_performance": -0.228043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00891, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023389, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006909, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14262050, "relative_activity": 0.942272, "balance": 1.235302, "dry_up": 1.111743, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048236, "annualized_volatility": 0.219202, "from_high_reference": -0.128918, "from_low_reference": 0.062852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.850711, "fair_value_reference": 45.440785, "structural_low": 40.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.024475, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.015354, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.037657, "worst_return": -0.178672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008084, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.040658, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.040128, "worst_return": -0.254656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.068956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235849, "worst_return": -0.050578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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43.671273, 43.751151, 43.842649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.35, "volume": 17098882, "typical_volume": 15406766.5, "trend": 44.036464, "fair_value": 45.472926, "relative_strength": -12.180598, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.266712, "energy": 13.975148, "activity_lines": [ 43.677333, 43.615455, 43.722526, 43.792867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.08, "volume": 22465535, "typical_volume": 15511059.85, "trend": 43.949882, "fair_value": 45.460882, "relative_strength": -12.795061, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.262647, "energy": 14.764002, "activity_lines": [ 43.529333, 43.498545, 43.662674, 43.73116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.46, "volume": 14262050, "typical_volume": 15135804.45, "trend": 43.850711, "fair_value": 45.440785, "relative_strength": -15.886834, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.442004, "energy": 12.956705, "activity_lines": [ 43.499333, 43.472727, 43.630501, 43.699554 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }