{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0702d323-6ffa-4924-817c-351205a23d06", "symbol": "WRDA", "name": "UBS Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.575, "architecture_energy": 68.767, "architecture_maturity": 81.248, "architecture_confidence": 72.804, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.64, "rotation_up": 57.83, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.37, "rotation_down": 28.43, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.282333, 39.101272, 38.504714, 37.703677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.060001, "trend_reference": 36.767667, "distance_from_trend": 0.089544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.600051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19226, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.182598, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143918, "excess_performance": -0.026974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143918, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.336141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 195224, "relative_activity": 1.055226, "balance": 2.336141, "dry_up": 1.103852, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017723, "annualized_volatility": 0.106517, "from_high_reference": -0.002242, "from_low_reference": 0.241978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.767667, "fair_value_reference": 33.600051, "structural_low": 33.360001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012845, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00237, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0549, "worst_return": 0.002732, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.062174, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019221, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.062174, "worst_return": 0.062174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.757785, "energy": 73.773414, "activity_lines": [ 39.002666, 38.785454, 37.897143, 37.164849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.029999, "volume": 155257, "typical_volume": 212091.35, "trend": 36.480833, "fair_value": 33.478421, "relative_strength": -2.380449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.800692, "energy": 65.40169, "activity_lines": [ 39.029332, 38.867726, 38.095833, 37.338677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.695, "volume": 266187, "typical_volume": 204440.15, "trend": 36.616667, "fair_value": 33.53276, "relative_strength": -3.782563, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.470741, "energy": 60.126308, "activity_lines": [ 38.933666, 38.864545, 38.244523, 37.481527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.060001, "volume": 195224, "typical_volume": 185006.9, "trend": 36.767667, "fair_value": 33.600051, "relative_strength": -3.182598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.57494, "energy": 68.766523, "activity_lines": [ 39.282333, 39.101272, 38.504714, 37.703677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }