{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0706cb93-4446-48de-8e93-9815e462f622", "symbol": "USAUK", "name": "UBS Core MSCI USA UCITS ETF USD Ukdis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.603, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.836, "architecture_energy": 69.588, "architecture_maturity": 56.492, "architecture_confidence": 81.035, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 56.62, "upward_expansion": 82.89, "deceleration": 64.11, "rotation_down": 27.68, "downward_expansion": 11.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.943, 39.699091, 39.28312, 38.495437 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.93, "trend_reference": 37.597989, "distance_from_trend": 0.088622, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.783559, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329606, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.016037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132825, "excess_performance": 0.049942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088622, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035325, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007707, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01016, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132825, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 36.541966, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10368, "relative_activity": 0.747154, "balance": 36.541966, "dry_up": 0.234206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016228, "annualized_volatility": 0.135722, "from_high_reference": -0.002437, "from_low_reference": 0.228962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.597989, "fair_value_reference": 30.783559, "structural_low": 33.73, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.016128, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.00591, "regime_survival": 0.725, "best_return": 0.062018, "worst_return": -0.113248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.046963, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.027228, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.103332, "worst_return": -0.056236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.083597, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.004322, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.21161, "worst_return": -0.1685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.80136, "energy": 65.257308, "activity_lines": [ 39.478334, 39.421365, 38.546691, 37.850008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.490002, "volume": 306, "typical_volume": 15533.3, "trend": 37.239497, "fair_value": 30.459846, "relative_strength": -1.27608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.901723, "energy": 60.921928, "activity_lines": [ 39.525668, 39.448001, 38.728834, 38.003389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.27, "volume": 306, "typical_volume": 15131.7, "trend": 37.34347, "fair_value": 30.561699, "relative_strength": -1.675909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.904982, "energy": 61.178358, "activity_lines": [ 39.467668, 39.422183, 38.873572, 38.134389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.459999, "volume": 2020, "typical_volume": 14903.6, "trend": 37.450294, "fair_value": 30.666915, "relative_strength": -1.266342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.817819, "energy": 55.04831, "activity_lines": [ 39.487334, 39.427546, 39.018477, 38.270939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.93, "volume": 10368, "typical_volume": 13876.65, "trend": 37.597989, "fair_value": 30.783559, "relative_strength": 1.016037, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.83574, "energy": 69.587885, "activity_lines": [ 39.943, 39.699091, 39.28312, 38.495437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }