{ "ticker": { "uuid": "070a6056-3588-4571-9994-70425f39ae34", "symbol": "FLXB", "name": "Franklin FTSE Brazil UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.285, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.06, "architecture_energy": 11.829, "architecture_maturity": 20.531, "architecture_confidence": 55.51, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.46, "rotation_up": 47.34, "upward_expansion": 34.26, "deceleration": 41.89, "rotation_down": 20.24, "downward_expansion": 20.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.58, 30.330364, 30.526667, 30.676376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.950001, "trend_reference": 30.579167, "distance_from_trend": -0.020575, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.423872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226259, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.777213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002678, "excess_performance": -0.168213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002678, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33033, "relative_activity": 1.665931, "balance": 0.439556, "dry_up": 1.030963, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035778, "annualized_volatility": 0.205808, "from_high_reference": -0.121185, "from_low_reference": 0.377328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.579167, "fair_value_reference": 24.423872, "structural_low": 28.754999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013764, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.002622, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.130655, "worst_return": -0.090293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035764, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151395, "worst_return": -0.083132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056577, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.050586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088249, "worst_return": -0.107482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141374, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.069226, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.46489, "worst_return": -0.084539, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035965, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036261, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082775, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134819, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01574, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033247, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.059999, "volume": 1276, "typical_volume": 2642.65, "trend": 21.055633, "fair_value": 19.639096, "relative_strength": -5.309347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"energy": 17.929501, "activity_lines": [ 29.981, 29.915909, 30.643381, 30.568398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.33, "volume": 12605, "typical_volume": 22139.95, "trend": 30.090333, "fair_value": 24.280378, "relative_strength": -2.840747, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.255685, "energy": 9.904617, "activity_lines": [ 30.154333, 29.946455, 30.587143, 30.595398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.98, "volume": 12702, "typical_volume": 19065.9, "trend": 30.288, "fair_value": 24.327782, "relative_strength": -0.835709, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.5733, "energy": 14.984847, "activity_lines": [ 30.511333, 30.133546, 30.598429, 30.652796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.174999, "volume": 23430, "typical_volume": 19620.5, "trend": 30.4715, "fair_value": 24.378904, "relative_strength": -1.103281, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.024663, "energy": 22.165599, "activity_lines": [ 30.793666, 30.348363, 30.623452, 30.710021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.950001, "volume": 33033, "typical_volume": 19828.55, "trend": 30.579167, "fair_value": 24.423872, "relative_strength": -7.777213, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.060089, "energy": 11.82923, "activity_lines": [ 30.58, 30.330364, 30.526667, 30.676376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }