{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0711f7ab-5fe6-4584-97b7-560b6540e1ab", "symbol": "MSFT", "name": "Microsoft Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.294, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.293, "architecture_energy": 84.033, "architecture_maturity": 22.984, "architecture_confidence": 56.637, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.95, "rotation_up": 75.4, "upward_expansion": 85.9, "deceleration": 50.55, "rotation_down": 8.12, "downward_expansion": 17.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 386.706665, 364.867271, 357.860029, 353.121217 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 434.600006, "trend_reference": 351.247844, "distance_from_trend": 0.237303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 375.350244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157852, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.666239, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.297889, "excess_performance": 0.123642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.237303, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157852, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20465, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.297889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.132858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2858, "relative_activity": 1.830057, "balance": 1.132858, "dry_up": 1.574246, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054456, "annualized_volatility": 0.401264, "from_high_reference": -0.076453, "from_low_reference": 0.405451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 351.247844, "fair_value_reference": 375.350244, "structural_low": 309.224694, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004647, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024356, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.050667, "worst_return": -0.065324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0364, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196434, "worst_return": -0.163178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006104, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.190624, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.170204, "worst_return": -0.124606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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344.145669, 344.613202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 398.049988, "volume": 2107, "typical_volume": 1459.15, "trend": 350.34193, "fair_value": 374.38781, "relative_strength": -14.478301, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.448724, "energy": 27.706142, "activity_lines": [ 358.703329, 349.309997, 349.387055, 347.685212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 434.600006, "volume": 2858, "typical_volume": 1561.7, "trend": 351.247844, "fair_value": 375.350244, "relative_strength": -8.666239, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.292571, "energy": 84.032617, "activity_lines": [ 386.706665, 364.867271, 357.860029, 353.121217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }