{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07122912-1530-423e-9ad2-37a0c8eadf03", "symbol": "VESTUM", "name": "Vestum AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.967, "architecture_energy": 64.196, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.824, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 53.92, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.5, "rotation_down": 29.47, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.937334, 15.830182, 14.472333, 13.233333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.96, "trend_reference": 11.668333, "distance_from_trend": 0.367805, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.345853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.707709, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.918403, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.997497, "excess_performance": 0.936002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.367805, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.707709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.478024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.379184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.30072, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.997497, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.511553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2061834, "relative_activity": 0.952637, "balance": 1.511553, "dry_up": 0.68095, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059572, "annualized_volatility": 0.472572, "from_high_reference": -0.023256, "from_low_reference": 1.086275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.668333, "fair_value_reference": 9.345853, "structural_low": 7.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.026923, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.029366, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.440351, "worst_return": -0.247262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.085972, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.10335, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.807017, "worst_return": -0.293241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02023, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.484211, "worst_return": -0.483502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.469375, "energy": 87.954719, "activity_lines": [ 15.849333, 14.828, 13.059, 11.976387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.66, "volume": 203126, "typical_volume": 2104433.0, "trend": 10.926333, "fair_value": 9.221045, "relative_strength": 45.243431, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.882305, "energy": 74.551599, "activity_lines": [ 15.802666, 15.153454, 13.432048, 12.296516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.040001, "volume": 2333357, "typical_volume": 2143113.4, "trend": 11.165333, "fair_value": 9.259314, "relative_strength": 45.495736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.201445, "energy": 67.909997, "activity_lines": [ 15.885334, 15.464, 13.813714, 12.62643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.02, "volume": 1296922, "typical_volume": 2128148.0, "trend": 11.407667, "fair_value": 9.301718, "relative_strength": 42.201103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.299672, "energy": 66.155591, "activity_lines": [ 15.929334, 15.684, 14.162762, 12.939634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.96, "volume": 2061834, "typical_volume": 2164343.0, "trend": 11.668333, "fair_value": 9.345853, "relative_strength": 37.918403, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.96724, "energy": 64.196258, "activity_lines": [ 15.937334, 15.830182, 14.472333, 13.233333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }