{ "ticker": { "uuid": "072bd898-77eb-476c-88a6-960e0d222237", "symbol": "MNR", "name": "Mach Natural Resources LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.605, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.55, "architecture_energy": 25.203, "architecture_maturity": 18.309, "architecture_confidence": 59.518, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.24, "rotation_up": 53.09, "upward_expansion": 66.79, "deceleration": 57.82, "rotation_down": 16.67, "downward_expansion": 12.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.242, 13.083091, 13.110537, 13.025002 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.96, "trend_reference": 12.691915, "distance_from_trend": 0.021123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.572333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.345455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143843, "excess_performance": 0.018218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06904, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143843, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.807249, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1342058, "relative_activity": 0.481156, "balance": 1.807249, "dry_up": 0.46341, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050891, "annualized_volatility": 0.282812, "from_high_reference": -0.098072, "from_low_reference": 0.348335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.691915, "fair_value_reference": 12.572333, "structural_low": 11.284277, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064652, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093481, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.08254, "worst_return": -0.084899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.150671, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.213031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.150671, "worst_return": -0.150671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.025977, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025977, "worst_return": -0.025977, "sufficient": false 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12.556438, "relative_strength": 0.008433, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.930236, "energy": 12.758209, "activity_lines": [ 12.844, 12.966805, 13.041111, 12.861129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.39, "volume": 1266647, "typical_volume": 2853538.35, "trend": 12.481569, "fair_value": 12.562227, "relative_strength": 2.747236, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.606044, "energy": 17.711755, "activity_lines": [ 13.058667, 13.008727, 13.073095, 12.926499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.64, "volume": 1085964, "typical_volume": 2811884.95, "trend": 12.591643, "fair_value": 12.56966, "relative_strength": 3.827835, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.058265, "energy": 34.082529, "activity_lines": [ 13.294, 13.104, 13.125489, 13.001237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.96, "volume": 1342058, "typical_volume": 2789234.25, "trend": 12.691915, "fair_value": 12.572333, "relative_strength": -4.345455, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.550124, "energy": 25.202539, "activity_lines": [ 13.242, 13.083091, 13.110537, 13.025002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }