{ "ticker": { "uuid": "072f3c84-33fe-428c-aa8c-ceee5b145565", "symbol": "U2PW34", "name": "Upwork Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.265, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.572, "architecture_energy": 35.903, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.328, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.53, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 46.6, "rotation_down": 25.77, "downward_expansion": 63.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.25, 8.948182, 9.032571, 9.873183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.77, "trend_reference": 11.846333, "distance_from_trend": -0.175272, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.597308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.330698, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.921313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.503557, "excess_performance": -0.446509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.330698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.503557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.193739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 484, "relative_activity": 0.292385, "balance": 5.193739, "dry_up": 0.117045, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042201, "annualized_volatility": 0.724656, "from_high_reference": -0.592237, "from_low_reference": 0.209158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.846333, "fair_value_reference": 14.597308, "structural_low": 8.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.035105, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007593, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.346191, "worst_return": -0.347478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088643, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.082477, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.953125, "worst_return": -0.402799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.206764, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.209783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425532, "worst_return": 0.166407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080518, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.175527, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.87, "volume": 201, "typical_volume": 1419.45, "trend": 10.709667, "fair_value": 23.010857, "relative_strength": 5.644898, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.92, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 1648.8, "trend": 13.607667, "fair_value": 14.668333, "relative_strength": -48.225671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.686294, "energy": 65.241845, "activity_lines": [ 8.481333, 8.58, 9.296381, 10.836215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1633.55, "trend": 13.133, "fair_value": 14.662756, "relative_strength": -46.337125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.26062, "energy": 64.212258, "activity_lines": [ 8.614667, 8.641091, 9.17319, 10.533785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.9, "volume": 291, "typical_volume": 1648.05, "trend": 12.651, "fair_value": 14.658013, "relative_strength": -45.921673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.20263, "energy": 58.554138, "activity_lines": [ 8.761333, 8.689273, 9.071143, 10.260688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1635.4, "trend": 12.235333, "fair_value": 14.624167, "relative_strength": -45.354968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.193554, "energy": 47.949849, "activity_lines": [ 8.927333, 8.762, 9.011667, 10.032237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.77, "volume": 484, "typical_volume": 1655.35, "trend": 11.846333, "fair_value": 14.597308, "relative_strength": -38.921313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.571559, "energy": 35.90262, "activity_lines": [ 9.25, 8.948182, 9.032571, 9.873183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }