{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0732f422-6f4c-419d-a3f2-ca5e780a5258", "symbol": "000529", "name": "Guangdong Guanghong Holdings Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.687, "architecture_energy": 40.26, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.077, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.29, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 34.65, "downward_expansion": 64.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.649333, 4.6172, 4.805557, 5.050938 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.72, "trend_reference": 5.381564, "distance_from_trend": -0.122932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.868272, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195675, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.455154, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.2448, "excess_performance": -0.2522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.195675, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058921, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2448, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496006, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21851653, "relative_activity": 1.127315, "balance": 0.496006, "dry_up": 1.153385, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06071, "annualized_volatility": 0.208998, "from_high_reference": -0.282675, "from_low_reference": 0.095128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.381564, "fair_value_reference": 5.868272, "structural_low": 4.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.048437, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.015456, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.202284, "worst_return": -0.127135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071835, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.081864, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.481482, "worst_return": -0.236522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.166999, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.198015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.246939, "worst_return": 0.102694, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.560398, 4.748589, 5.091722, 5.339894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.6, "volume": 27360314, "typical_volume": 21898918.1, "trend": 5.574897, "fair_value": 5.90687, "relative_strength": -29.409107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.482258, "energy": 79.391632, "activity_lines": [ 4.556224, 4.687018, 5.017403, 5.273298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.68, "volume": 25727241, "typical_volume": 21880181.6, "trend": 5.531897, "fair_value": 5.89789, "relative_strength": -20.288514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.662705, "energy": 63.027809, "activity_lines": [ 4.596434, 4.656502, 4.957608, 5.215563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.46, "volume": 23263056, "typical_volume": 21068219.3, "trend": 5.47523, "fair_value": 5.887255, "relative_strength": -23.54262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.462197, "energy": 62.283095, "activity_lines": [ 4.564667, 4.601218, 4.883813, 5.146409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 18586057, "typical_volume": 20345781.6, "trend": 5.424564, "fair_value": 5.878037, "relative_strength": -17.419156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.652147, "energy": 47.656545, "activity_lines": [ 4.614, 4.603495, 4.840495, 5.096394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.72, "volume": 21851653, "typical_volume": 19383809.15, "trend": 5.381564, "fair_value": 5.868272, "relative_strength": -20.455154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.687447, "energy": 40.259981, "activity_lines": [ 4.649333, 4.6172, 4.805557, 5.050938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }