{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07392e7a-c6fa-41aa-ad3a-e70df8ebaac4", "symbol": "002484", "name": "Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.481, "architecture_energy": 30.609, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.645, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.28, "rotation_up": 17.42, "upward_expansion": 53.63, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 42.66, "downward_expansion": 21.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.451333, 77.246363, 72.974162, 63.575655 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 67.580002, "trend_reference": 52.049001, "distance_from_trend": 0.298392, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.265743, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.674768, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 58.329023, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.211243, "excess_performance": 1.203843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.298392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.558258, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.674768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.558769, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.58329, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.301038, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.211243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357227, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247636622, "relative_activity": 1.341352, "balance": 1.357227, "dry_up": 1.302382, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.238295, "annualized_volatility": 0.887007, "from_high_reference": -0.414588, "from_low_reference": 1.713637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.049001, "fair_value_reference": 25.265743, "structural_low": 25.78046, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.002856, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016377, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.377953, "worst_return": -0.288618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045017, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.281493, "worst_return": -0.281667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.17958, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.232135, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.409378, "worst_return": -0.147164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 66.825899, "energy": 67.468637, "activity_lines": [ 96.647332, 89.939666, 70.198292, 59.258572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 73.279999, "volume": 235312788, "typical_volume": 168039274.6, "trend": 48.592243, "fair_value": 24.410167, "relative_strength": 88.353515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.520258, "energy": 58.96678, "activity_lines": [ 88.875999, 88.671771, 71.857817, 60.950759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.59, "volume": 234056036, "typical_volume": 172148987.1, "trend": 49.819356, "fair_value": 24.697838, "relative_strength": 59.893955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.164654, "energy": 29.862692, "activity_lines": [ 78.405999, 85.091041, 72.404016, 61.918357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.709999, "volume": 244762658, "typical_volume": 178515758.9, "trend": 50.782526, "fair_value": 24.951444, "relative_strength": 47.401676, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.823284, "energy": 31.143019, "activity_lines": [ 69.273999, 80.348181, 72.333965, 62.491947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.580002, "volume": 247636622, "typical_volume": 184617131.7, "trend": 52.049001, "fair_value": 25.265743, "relative_strength": 58.329023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.48112, "energy": 30.609418, "activity_lines": [ 66.451333, 77.246363, 72.974162, 63.575655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }