{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07493167-8420-4509-8f05-010844e7940a", "symbol": "CFLX", "name": "CIBC Flexible Yield ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.849, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.321, "architecture_energy": 50.467, "architecture_maturity": 8.141, "architecture_confidence": 95.794, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.1, "rotation_up": 15.98, "upward_expansion": 9.68, "deceleration": 42.07, "rotation_down": 58.61, "downward_expansion": 83.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.433622, 16.44147, 16.456643, 16.467158 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.450001, "trend_reference": 16.479068, "distance_from_trend": -0.001764, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.634666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.130415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0021, "excess_performance": -0.122521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000893, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01571, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3800, "relative_activity": 0.332168, "balance": 0.26431, "dry_up": 0.581294, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002243, "annualized_volatility": 0.017519, "from_high_reference": -0.00695, "from_low_reference": 0.01809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.479068, "fair_value_reference": 15.634666, "structural_low": 16.404139, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.011999, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005797, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.021205, "worst_return": -0.033461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030369, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016898, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.044557, "worst_return": -0.047767, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032635, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022815, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.005339, "worst_return": -0.059931, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 16.453909, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14555.0, "trend": 16.479032, "fair_value": 15.561255, "relative_strength": -10.395163, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.176864, "energy": 18.383786, "activity_lines": [ 16.467724, 16.470646, 16.478898, 16.483027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.424046, "volume": 13400, "typical_volume": 13950.0, "trend": 16.479813, "fair_value": 15.575804, "relative_strength": -10.275329, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.352247, "energy": 55.715164, "activity_lines": [ 16.450398, 16.462464, 16.472725, 16.47948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.434, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 13210.0, "trend": 16.480277, "fair_value": 15.590415, "relative_strength": -9.704144, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.061771, "energy": 63.738081, "activity_lines": [ 16.440992, 16.456461, 16.468115, 16.476524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.414091, "volume": 16900, "typical_volume": 13810.0, "trend": 16.479753, "fair_value": 15.605055, "relative_strength": -9.673646, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.411436, "energy": 68.470046, "activity_lines": [ 16.428227, 16.447749, 16.462234, 16.472254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.43, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 12645.0, "trend": 16.47924, "fair_value": 15.619905, "relative_strength": -8.775864, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.94037, "energy": 68.318269, "activity_lines": [ 16.427358, 16.44284, 16.458305, 16.469044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 11440.0, "trend": 16.479068, "fair_value": 15.634666, "relative_strength": -11.130415, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.321346, "energy": 50.46666, "activity_lines": [ 16.433622, 16.44147, 16.456643, 16.467158 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }