{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07519ea2-af6c-41dd-840d-87f8c6862bcc", "symbol": "TUPY3", "name": "Tupy S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.328, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.339, "architecture_energy": 36.248, "architecture_maturity": 34.039, "architecture_confidence": 57.245, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.04, "rotation_up": 46.63, "upward_expansion": 75.4, "deceleration": 69.44, "rotation_down": 25.07, "downward_expansion": 6.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.276, 15.247818, 14.698429, 14.267355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.22, "trend_reference": 13.669333, "distance_from_trend": 0.040285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.410847, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.26742, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.876821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.206107, "excess_performance": 0.263155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.26742, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010447, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018768, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164043, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206107, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7477900, "relative_activity": 1.897841, "balance": 0.672746, "dry_up": 1.033084, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087904, "annualized_volatility": 0.464584, "from_high_reference": -0.164021, "from_low_reference": 0.342776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.669333, "fair_value_reference": 19.410847, "structural_low": 10.59, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.060049, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016224, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.17493, "worst_return": -0.124233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034463, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006597, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.233102, "worst_return": -0.115637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055718, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.121906, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.190606, "worst_return": -0.100372, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.98, "volume": 3558700, "typical_volume": 4642610.0, "trend": 13.199667, "fair_value": 19.656115, "relative_strength": 7.562965, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.668341, "energy": 76.103315, "activity_lines": [ 15.270667, 14.528545, 14.141, 13.74043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.190001, "volume": 3780500, "typical_volume": 4455715.0, "trend": 13.332, "fair_value": 19.607455, "relative_strength": 12.464269, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.190112, "energy": 79.734738, "activity_lines": [ 15.655334, 14.902546, 14.373143, 13.933355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.6, "volume": 2365900, "typical_volume": 4231650.0, "trend": 13.447333, "fair_value": 19.549901, "relative_strength": 9.069909, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.814324, "energy": 71.959865, "activity_lines": [ 15.719334, 15.140182, 14.536429, 14.079677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.72, "volume": 2658000, "typical_volume": 4032085.0, "trend": 13.583667, "fair_value": 19.482537, "relative_strength": 8.296789, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.430079, "energy": 67.41247, "activity_lines": [ 15.753334, 15.354546, 14.696952, 14.226301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.22, "volume": 7477900, "typical_volume": 3940215.0, "trend": 13.669333, "fair_value": 19.410847, "relative_strength": 1.876821, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.338561, "energy": 36.24756, "activity_lines": [ 15.276, 15.247818, 14.698429, 14.267355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }