{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0757ed83-d32e-449c-a185-84b7adff6eda", "symbol": "GIPCL", "name": "Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 72.888, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.694, "architecture_energy": 20.622, "architecture_maturity": 35.296, "architecture_confidence": 84.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.89, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 57.14, "deceleration": 85.37, "rotation_down": 25.76, "downward_expansion": 18.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 159.61933, 160.577634, 159.058618, 154.610365 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 157.929993, "trend_reference": 149.360333, "distance_from_trend": 0.057376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 177.697417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.017804, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08327, "excess_performance": 0.12698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004137, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08327, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.385612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1378553, "relative_activity": 1.073974, "balance": 1.385612, "dry_up": 1.058552, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05933, "annualized_volatility": 0.302654, "from_high_reference": -0.202374, "from_low_reference": 0.317181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.360333, "fair_value_reference": 177.697417, "structural_low": 119.900002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.054582, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.020605, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.213091, "worst_return": -0.098405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054906, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.070167, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.402095, "worst_return": 0.000178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028197, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01777, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.190188, "worst_return": -0.07538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09137, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013389, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055625, "active": 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154.533428, 150.851785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 164.050003, "volume": 1776958, "typical_volume": 1316338.7, "trend": 148.709, "fair_value": 176.311313, "relative_strength": 3.754541, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.656605, "energy": 38.831941, "activity_lines": [ 162.101332, 161.490181, 156.006286, 151.876624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 162.110001, "volume": 2221186, "typical_volume": 1358110.95, "trend": 149.164667, "fair_value": 176.699623, "relative_strength": 2.48156, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.461086, "energy": 36.412632, "activity_lines": [ 162.28, 161.93309, 157.16919, 152.741204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 157.229996, "volume": 882871, "typical_volume": 1361746.2, "trend": 149.115333, "fair_value": 177.024303, "relative_strength": 2.135324, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.940325, "energy": 29.049056, "activity_lines": [ 160.730665, 161.395999, 157.767857, 153.261548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 161.169998, "volume": 952422, "typical_volume": 1291633.25, "trend": 149.078, "fair_value": 177.37424, "relative_strength": 2.408321, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.702351, "energy": 27.236504, "activity_lines": [ 160.769332, 161.38109, 158.638714, 154.039269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.929993, "volume": 1378553, "typical_volume": 1283600.3, "trend": 149.360333, "fair_value": 177.697417, "relative_strength": -0.017804, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.693729, "energy": 20.622117, "activity_lines": [ 159.61933, 160.577634, 159.058618, 154.610365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }