{ "ticker": { "uuid": "075eb067-504a-46df-a100-4f2728c084ae", "symbol": "NEA", "name": "Nicol\u00e1s Correa, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.166, "architecture_energy": 52.644, "architecture_maturity": 43.055, "architecture_confidence": 87.654, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.1, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 14.35, "deceleration": 33.87, "rotation_down": 64.87, "downward_expansion": 83.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.472, 9.561455, 9.644758, 9.667704 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.3, "trend_reference": 9.669294, "distance_from_trend": -0.038192, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.018429, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.144446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007796, "excess_performance": -0.132226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007796, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459365, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53196, "relative_activity": 3.611982, "balance": 0.459365, "dry_up": 1.62509, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03995, "annualized_volatility": 0.216883, "from_high_reference": -0.166548, "from_low_reference": 0.091651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.669294, "fair_value_reference": 8.018429, "structural_low": 8.76, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.021393, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.109091, "worst_return": -0.076191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014906, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017799, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.263384, "worst_return": -0.129824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011465, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304403, "worst_return": -0.108497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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9.634937, "fair_value": 7.963842, "relative_strength": -16.143584, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.410934, "energy": 31.790388, "activity_lines": [ 9.530667, 9.611273, 9.680177, 9.685614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.72, "volume": 10763, "typical_volume": 12535.4, "trend": 9.662673, "fair_value": 7.992336, "relative_strength": -13.436059, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.643142, "energy": 23.495465, "activity_lines": [ 9.572, 9.624, 9.683294, 9.691102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.3, "volume": 53196, "typical_volume": 14727.65, "trend": 9.669294, "fair_value": 8.018429, "relative_strength": -18.144446, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.166404, "energy": 52.643524, "activity_lines": [ 9.472, 9.561455, 9.644758, 9.667704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }