{ "ticker": { "uuid": "075ee488-cffc-447c-8623-a348298b6e54", "symbol": "ITPD", "name": "iShares $ TIPS UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.945, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.546, "architecture_energy": 33.262, "architecture_maturity": 95.413, "architecture_confidence": 71.573, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.91, "rotation_up": 29.48, "upward_expansion": 63.77, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 30.3, "downward_expansion": 20.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.908367, 3.915109, 3.897099, 3.882748 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.8805, "trend_reference": 3.860592, "distance_from_trend": 0.005157, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.822209, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015251, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.511993, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025409, "excess_performance": -0.145483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005157, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008101, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.635668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 770, "relative_activity": 0.069152, "balance": 0.635668, "dry_up": 0.082646, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005735, "annualized_volatility": 0.049459, "from_high_reference": -0.019581, "from_low_reference": 0.042648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.860592, "fair_value_reference": 3.822209, "structural_low": 3.750615, "invalidation": 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3.818791, "relative_strength": -10.133442, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.526542, "energy": 62.650101, "activity_lines": [ 3.925267, 3.918064, 3.892684, 3.876955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.922, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18355.45, "trend": 3.858691, "fair_value": 3.820633, "relative_strength": -10.371011, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.599379, "energy": 56.381004, "activity_lines": [ 3.922533, 3.920982, 3.896942, 3.881341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.8805, "volume": 770, "typical_volume": 11134.9, "trend": 3.860592, "fair_value": 3.822209, "relative_strength": -13.511993, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.545955, "energy": 33.261691, "activity_lines": [ 3.908367, 3.915109, 3.897099, 3.882748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }