{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07693b08-cc07-417b-a21a-bc63c152ac22", "symbol": "NGPE", "name": "NBI Global Private Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.603, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 58.767, "architecture_energy": 71.888, "architecture_maturity": 10.298, "architecture_confidence": 58.973, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.42, "rotation_up": 75.91, "upward_expansion": 64.97, "deceleration": 20.89, "rotation_down": 16.89, "downward_expansion": 23.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.080666, 47.159818, 46.460714, 45.972559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.82, "trend_reference": 46.184, "distance_from_trend": 0.078729, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.426406, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.708543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038566, "excess_performance": -0.081856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078729, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059629, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031237, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100977, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.964286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3800, "relative_activity": 0.601742, "balance": 2.964286, "dry_up": 0.538401, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030788, "annualized_volatility": 0.231843, "from_high_reference": -0.189888, "from_low_reference": 0.213051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.184, "fair_value_reference": 51.426406, "structural_low": 41.07, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001623, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011667, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.105832, "worst_return": -0.0219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05789, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.182464, "worst_return": -0.04915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013631, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272048, "worst_return": -0.093409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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45.711591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.66, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 7045.0, "trend": 47.09509, "fair_value": 51.223748, "relative_strength": -19.940198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.069485, "energy": 5.866834, "activity_lines": [ 45.933333, 45.72, 45.371238, 45.661636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.330002, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 6860.0, "trend": 46.778927, "fair_value": 51.270506, "relative_strength": -17.886949, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.834356, "energy": 16.048084, "activity_lines": [ 46.458001, 46.015091, 45.618429, 45.676791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.25, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 6720.0, "trend": 46.417667, "fair_value": 51.308185, "relative_strength": -19.161734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.468557, "energy": 35.233821, "activity_lines": [ 46.493334, 46.094546, 45.750429, 45.642667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.009998, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 6310.0, "trend": 46.299, "fair_value": 51.362824, "relative_strength": -14.918563, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.028608, "energy": 58.726722, "activity_lines": [ 47.112, 46.482363, 46.034143, 45.745398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.82, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 6315.0, "trend": 46.184, "fair_value": 51.426406, "relative_strength": -13.708543, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.766781, "energy": 71.888355, "activity_lines": [ 48.080666, 47.159818, 46.460714, 45.972559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }