{ "ticker": { "uuid": "07697fe2-0c91-44d9-88bb-4e1bf3b30e30", "symbol": "BHC", "name": "Bausch Health Companies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.262, "architecture_energy": 28.946, "architecture_maturity": 30.452, "architecture_confidence": 57.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.19, "rotation_up": 58.49, "upward_expansion": 33.45, "deceleration": 45.59, "rotation_down": 19.86, "downward_expansion": 24.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.769333, 5.377818, 5.337095, 5.372581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.25, "trend_reference": 5.503333, "distance_from_trend": 0.135675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.885128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092246, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.857261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062925, "excess_performance": -0.0627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135675, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088133, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062925, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790119, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38609023, "relative_activity": 2.987052, "balance": 0.790119, "dry_up": 2.021986, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114966, "annualized_volatility": 0.712782, "from_high_reference": -0.280368, "from_low_reference": 0.443418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.503333, "fair_value_reference": 6.885128, "structural_low": 4.33, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062626, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032998, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.278261, "worst_return": -0.144172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057632, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.099043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066258, "worst_return": -0.0625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.067485, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.212701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154206, "worst_return": -0.359375, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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"relative_strength": -27.643168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.616128, "energy": 43.944764, "activity_lines": [ 4.817333, 4.939636, 5.163476, 5.319011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.43, "volume": 9923062, "typical_volume": 9485254.6, "trend": 5.552667, "fair_value": 6.912885, "relative_strength": -32.558101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.118558, "energy": 51.424981, "activity_lines": [ 4.691333, 4.822909, 5.085524, 5.240624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.89, "volume": 48129009, "typical_volume": 11382339.05, "trend": 5.542, "fair_value": 6.898974, "relative_strength": 3.769396, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.9265, "energy": 9.723867, "activity_lines": [ 5.408, 5.171455, 5.246381, 5.326903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 38609023, "typical_volume": 12925459.3, "trend": 5.503333, "fair_value": 6.885128, "relative_strength": -8.857261, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.261799, "energy": 28.946498, "activity_lines": [ 5.769333, 5.377818, 5.337095, 5.372581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }