{ "ticker": { "uuid": "076dfc00-ff34-4d40-8457-225860a22c31", "symbol": "INDOTHAI", "name": "Indo Thai Securities Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -96.224, "architecture_energy": 95.325, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.871, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.04, "rotation_up": 8.64, "upward_expansion": 21.49, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 85.8, "downward_expansion": 97.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.886665, 201.590544, 226.397046, 239.15258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 99.589996, "trend_reference": 250.469333, "distance_from_trend": -0.602386, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 150.968471, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.578533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.609175, "excess_performance": -0.565466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.602386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.548971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.635785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.788706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.609175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.1529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3469231, "relative_activity": 0.738793, "balance": 0.1529, "dry_up": 2.299783, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.29433, "annualized_volatility": 1.126323, "from_high_reference": -0.786448, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 250.469333, "fair_value_reference": 150.968471, "structural_low": 99.589996, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.011848, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.014392, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.643066, "worst_return": -0.162957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.246465, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.171662, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.780664, "worst_return": -0.142911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.645391, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.544356, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 5.294181, "worst_return": -0.182054, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118819, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.339456, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.179986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.202042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.03561, "energy": 46.533852, "activity_lines": [ 228.843334, 232.19509, 249.717284, 255.034709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 216.300003, "volume": 12285145, "typical_volume": 3672380.4, "trend": 257.425001, "fair_value": 149.274812, "relative_strength": -18.574968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.91542, "energy": 49.095014, "activity_lines": [ 223.628668, 228.433819, 245.57719, 252.140946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 212.089996, "volume": 22002756, "typical_volume": 4623200.45, "trend": 255.574667, "fair_value": 150.480563, "relative_strength": -22.299493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.045267, "energy": 69.457234, "activity_lines": [ 218.358, 224.870727, 241.253523, 249.216107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.589996, "volume": 3469231, "typical_volume": 4695810.45, "trend": 250.469333, "fair_value": 150.968471, "relative_strength": -63.578533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.223617, "energy": 95.325299, "activity_lines": [ 176.886665, 201.590544, 226.397046, 239.15258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }